The Rapid expansion of the Lanzhou–Xining (Lanxi) urban cluster in China during recent decades poses a threat to the fragile arid environment. Quantitatively assessing the impact of urban expansion on vegetation in the Lanxi urban cluster has profound implications for future sustainable urban planning. This study investigated the urban expansion dynamics of the Lanxi urban cluster and its impacts on regional vegetation between 2001 and 2021 based on time series land cover data and auxiliary remote sensing data, such as digital elevation model (DEM) data, nighttime light data, and administrative boundary data. Thereinto, urban expansion dynamics were evaluated using the annual China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD, 2001–2021). Urban expansion impacts on regional vegetation were assessed via the Vegetation Disturbance Index (VDI), an index capable of quantitatively assessing the positive and negative impacts of urban expansion at the pixel level, which can be obtained by overlaying the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and rainfall data. The major findings indicate that: (1) Over the past two decades, the Lanxi region has experienced rapid urban expansion, with the built-up area expanding from 183.50 km² to 294.30 km², which is an average annual expansion rate of 2.39%. Notably, Lanzhou, Baiyin, and Xining dominated the expansion. (2) Urban expansion negatively affected approximately 53.50 km² of vegetation, while about 39.56 km² saw positive impacts. The negative effects were mainly due to the loss of cropland and grassland. Therefore, cities in drylands should balance urban development and vegetation conservation by strictly controlling cropland and grassland occupancy and promoting intelligent urban growth.

In recent years, rapid urbanization in the Southern Jiangsu urban area has significantly altered land use patterns, impacting local ecosystem service value (ESV). This study examines land use changes (LUCs) from 2000 to 2020 and assesses ESV changes with the equivalent factor method. The PLUS model is also used to project future LUCs in line with the “Land and Space Planning of Jiangsu Province (2021–2035)”. The simulation considers scenarios for natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), farmland protection (FPS), and comprehensive development (CDS) for the year 2035. The research findings show that over the past two decades, urbanized areas have persistently grown, whereas there has been a steady decline in the extents of farmland, forested areas, and grasslands. The total ESV has shown a decreasing trend, with the spatial distribution of ESV exhibiting higher values in the eastern regions and lower values in the west. The relationship between land use and ESV is negative, as evidenced by both the comprehensive land use (LA) and the Moran’s I index. Scenario predictions reveal that farmland, forest land, and grassland show a decreasing trend under the NDS, while it is the opposite under the EPS. The FPS is predominant in farmland area, and all land types in the CDS comply with national land planning requirements. Overall, the research findings reveal and predict the influence of LUCs on ESV in the study area under four scenarios, which is beneficial optimizing regional resource planning schemes and formulating ecological compensation policies.