Hanqing Deng

Hanqing Deng


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

3Years (2024-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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23 July 2024 in Atmosphere
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
CLChun Liu
Chun Liu
HDHanqing Deng
Hanqing Deng
XQXuexing Qiu
Xuexing Qiu
YLYanyu Lu
Yanyu Lu
JLJiayun Li
Jiayun Li
This paper proposes a new post-processing method for model data in order to improve typhoon track and rainfall forecasts. The model data used in the article include low-resolution ensemble forecasts and high-resolution forecasts. The entire improvement method contains the following three steps. The first step is to correct the typhoon track forecast: three ensemble member optimization methods are applied to the low-resolution ensemble forecasts, and then the best optimization method is selected with the principle of the smallest average distance error. The results of rainfall forecasts show that the corrected rainfall forecast performs better than the original forecasts. The second step is to derive the high-resolution probability rainfall forecast: the neighborhood method is applied to the deterministic high-resolution rainfall forecast. The last step is to correct the typhoon rainfall forecast: the low- and high-resolution forecasts are blended using the probability-matching method with two different schemes. The results show that the forecasts of the two schemes perform better than the original forecast under all rainfall thresholds and all forecast lead times. In terms of bias score, a rain forecast from one scheme corrects the rainfall deviation from observation better for light and moderate rainfall, whereas a rain forecast from another scheme corrects the rainfall deviation better for heavy and torrential rainfall. The better performance of corrected rain forecasts in the case of Typhoon Lekima and Rumbia over eastern China is demonstrated.