For patients surviving serious traumatic brain injury (TBI), families and other stakeholders often desire information on long-term functional prognosis, but accurate and easy-to-use clinical tools are lacking. We aimed to build utilitarian decision trees from commonly collected clinical variables to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) functional levels at 1, 2, and 5 years after moderate-to-severe closed TBI. Flexible classification tree statistical modeling was used on prospectively collected data from the TBI-Model Systems (TBIMS) inception cohort study. Enrollments occurred at 17 designated, or previously designated, TBIMS inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Analysis included all participants with nonpenetrating TBI injured between January 1997 and January 2017. Sample sizes were 10,125 (year-1), 8,821 (year-2), and 6,165 (year-5) after cross-sectional exclusions (death, vegetative state, insufficient post-injury time, and unavailable outcome). In our final models, post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) duration consistently dominated branching hierarchy and was the lone injury characteristic significantly contributing to GOS predictability. Lower-order variables that added predictability were age, pre-morbid education, productivity, and occupational category. Generally, patient outcomes improved with shorter PTA, younger age, greater pre-morbid productivity, and higher pre-morbid vocational or educational achievement. Across all prognostic groups, the best and worst good recovery rates were 65.7% and 10.9%, respectively, and the best and worst severe disability rates were 3.9% and 64.1%. Predictability in test data sets ranged from C-statistic of 0.691 (year-1; confidence interval [CI], 0.675, 0.711) to 0.731 (year-2; CI, 0.724, 0.738). In conclusion, we developed a clinically useful tool to provide prognostic information on long-term functional outcomes for adult survivors of moderate and severe closed TBI. Predictive accuracy for GOS level was demonstrated in an independent test sample. Length of PTA, a clinical marker of injury severity, was by far the most critical outcome determinant.

Objectives: Compare characteristics and outcomes of combat-exposed military personnel with positive versus negative mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) histories. Setting: Recruitment was from registration lists and ambulatory clinics at four veterans administration hospitals. Participants: Consented veterans and service members completing initial evaluation by September 2016 (n = 492). Design: Observational with cross-sectional analyses. Main measures: Multimodal assessments including structured interviews, record review, questionnaires, neuroendocrine labs and neurocognitive and sensorimotor performance. Results: In unadjusted comparisons to those absent lifetime mTBI, the mTBI positive group (84%) had greater combat exposure, more potential concussive events, less social support and more comorbidities, including asthma, sleeping problems and post-traumatic stress disorder. They also fared worse on all sensory and pain symptom scores and self-reported functional and global outcomes. They had poorer scores on Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV coding (processing speed), TMT-B (visual-motor integration and executive function) and two posturography subtests, but were otherwise equal to TBI negative participants on neurocognitive and sensorimotor testing and neuroendocrine levels. Conclusions: Although differences in characteristics exist which were not adjusted for, participants with historical mTBI have greater symptomatology and life functioning difficulties compared with non-TBI. Performance measures were less dissimilar between groups. These findings will guide further research within this accruing cohort.

Chronic symptoms after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) are common among veterans and service members, and represent a significant source of morbidity, with those who sustain multiple mTBIs at greatest risk. Exosomal micro-RNAs (miRNAs), mediators of intercellular communication, may be involved in chronic TBI symptom persistence. Exosomal miRNA (exomiR) was extracted from 153 participants enrolled in the Chronic Effect of Neurotrauma Consortium (CENC) longitudinal study (no TBI, n = 35; ≥ 3 mTBIs (rTBI), n = 45; 1–2 mTBIs, n = 73). Analyses were performed with nCounter ^® Human miRNA Expression Panels and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) for identification of gene networks associated with TBI. Generalized linear models were used to analyze the predictive value of exomiR dysregulation and remote neurobehavioral symptoms. Compared with controls, there were 17 dysregulated exomiRs in the entire mTBI group and 32 dysregulated exomiRs in the rTBI group. Two miRNAs, hsa-miR-139-5p and hsa-miR-18a-5p, were significantly differentially expressed in the rTBI and 1–2 mTBI groups. IPA analyses showed that these dysregulated exomiRs correlated with pathways of inflammatory regulation, neurological disease, and cell development. Within the rTBI group, exomiRs correlated with gene activity for hub-genes of tumor protein TP53, insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor, and transforming growth factor beta. TBI history and neurobehavioral symptom survey scores negatively and significantly correlated with hsa-miR-103a-3p expression. Participants with remote mTBI have distinct exomiR profiles, which are significantly linked to inflammatory and neuronal repair pathways. These profiles suggest that analysis of exosomal miRNA expression may provide novel insights into the underlying pathobiology of chronic TBI symptom persistence.