This study aims to assess a spillway’s capacity to manage the highest possible fluctuations in water levels, the probable maximum flood (PMF). The PMF values have experienced alterations throughout the last six decades since the initial design and construction of the Kaeng Krachan Dam, one of Thailand’s major dams. The study also conducted an assessment of the greatest levels of rainfall for different timeframes, known as probable maximum precipitation (PMP). This was achieved by simulating the movement of rainstorms into the reservoir area near the dam. Afterwards, a thorough examination was carried out on several time periods related to anticipated flood volumes, PMF, and the spillway’s capability. The research entailed a comprehensive analysis of rainfall occurrences spanning 65 years, encompassing a total of 190 storm events, to present the top 10 highest recorded levels of rainfall in the southern and western regions of Thailand. This information is of utmost significance in assessing the potential maximum rainfall in the study area. The results reveal that the highest PMP observed over a three-day period was 429.20–726.40 mm, which is slightly different from the results obtained using storm transposition method (513.90–869.76 mm). Results of PMF and base flow were 4677.00 and 86.80 cms, respectively. The results of the examination of the estimated maximum flood volumes and their comparison with previous studies show that the maximum flow rates per unit area are within reasonable and consistent boundaries. The current spillway has the capability to manage flood flows with a frequency of up to 10,000 years. Nevertheless, while examining the potential PMF, it has been concluded that the existing spillway’s capacity is insufficient to adequately handle the highest water level in the reservoir, therefore preventing it from exceeding the designated maximum water level.

In many orographically complex monsoon basins, rain gauge networks are sparse and lack the long-term continuous records required for reliable precipitation probability analysis. Traditional regional frequency analysis assumes spatially uniform precipitation across the analysis zone, which is inadequate for basins with steep rainfall gradients and strong seasonal variability. Gridded precipitation products (GPPs) provide spatially continuous, long-term records that enable grid-cell-level probability distribution fitting. However, GPPs may exhibit local biases and errors, and statistical evaluation against gauge observations is necessary before application. This study was conducted in the Phetchaburi–Prachuap Khiri Khan River Basin, western Thailand, a region with steep orographic and coastal rainfall gradients. Four GPPs, namely CHIRPS, CHELSA, WorldClim, and PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, were evaluated against gauge observations. The best-performing product, after monthly bias correction, was then used to generate spatially continuous monthly exceedance probability maps using grid-cell gamma distribution fitting. CHELSA showed the best overall performance across all evaluation metrics (correlation coefficient (r) = 0.908, percent bias (PBIAS) = 7.0%, root mean square error (RMSE) = 48.3 mm), passing the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test at all 96 station-months. CHIRPS and WorldClim showed satisfactory overall performance but exhibited localized biases in complex terrain, whereas PERSIANN-CCS-CDR substantially overestimated wet-season rainfall, limiting its suitability for this basin. Spatial precipitation patterns varied markedly between monsoon regimes, shifting from a dominant west-to-east orographic gradient during the southwest monsoon to a less differentiated advective pattern during the northeast monsoon. Furthermore, analysis at the 75% exceedance probability level showed that mean-based effective rainfall overestimated reliable water supply in high-variance months, leading to underestimation of supplemental irrigation demand. The generated maps provide spatially explicit dependable rainfall estimates across the basin, supporting probabilistic agricultural water management at multiple planning scales in orographically complex monsoon basins.

Accurate rainfall information is essential for rainfall–runoff modeling in monsoon-influenced basins, where pronounced spatial variability and limited gauge coverage introduce significant uncertainty. Satellite precipitation products provide spatially continuous estimates but are affected by systematic biases, and improvements in statistical rainfall accuracy do not necessarily translate into hydrologically consistent model forcing. This study interpreted satellite rainfall bias correction through a rainfall–runoff framework in the Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand, using the DWCM-AgWU hydrological model. Simulations were driven by gauge observations and multiple satellite-based rainfall products (GSMaP, CMORPH, CHIRPS, and PERSIANN-CCS), with bias correction applied using Linear Scaling and Quantile Mapping under rainfall-specific calibration. Results showed that bias correction significantly modified rainfall characteristics in distinct ways. Linear Scaling primarily preserved temporal and spatial structure while adjusting rainfall magnitude, whereas Quantile Mapping improved the distributional representation of rainfall intensities. These differences propagated through hydrological processes, leading to systematic variations in runoff responses across multiple metrics, including water balance consistency, peak magnitude, and timing errors. This suggests that each method performs differently depending on the aspect of system response. Rather than identifying a universally optimal method, the findings highlight trade-offs in how rainfall correction strategies influence hydrological system response. Runoff behavior is interpreted as a process-level indicator of rainfall representation, emphasizing that hydrological consistency depends not only on rainfall accuracy but also on its interaction with model structure. These results suggest a process-oriented perspective for interpreting the role of satellite rainfall products in regulated and monsoon-affected basins.

As climate change worsens, irrigation modernization has become critical for better water distribution and maintaining rice production in the face of increasing water constraints. However, there remains a gap in quantification regarding the environmental trade-offs between pump-managed and gravity-based irrigation systems, especially in integrated assessments that relate economic performance, carbon emissions, and water use. This study used an integrated framework of water productivity (WP), consumptive water footprint (WF), carbon footprint, and eco-efficiency to compare gravity-based and pump-managed systems in the Don Chedi Operation and Maintenance Project, Thailand, from 2021 to 2023. The results showed no significant differences in WP and WF between systems. WP averaged 0.39 kg m⁻³ during the wet seasons and 0.54 kg m⁻³ during the dry seasons, while the WF averaged 2517 m³ t⁻¹ and 1854 m³ t⁻¹, respectively. These findings indicate that pump-managed irrigation enhanced operational flexibility and yield stability but did not substantially improve water use efficiency. However, compared with the gravity-based system, the pump-managed system produced much greater carbon emissions, with total carbon footprints ranging from 1.252 to 1.333 tCO₂eq t⁻¹, or five times higher in the irrigation process. Eco-efficiency metrics rose by up to 8.11% despite this environmental burden, indicating enhanced economic resilience amid fluctuating water conditions. These results show a recurring trade-off between low-carbon agricultural development and irrigation modernization. The study therefore emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy and low-carbon technologies into pump-based irrigation systems to support climate-resilient and sustainable agricultural transitions.