The Hulan River Basin is located in the black soil region of northeast China. This region is an important food-producing area and the susceptibility of black soil to erosion increases the risk of soil erosion, which is a serious environmental problem that affects agricultural productivity, water supply, and other important aspects of the region. In this paper, the changes in LULC (land use and land cover) in the basin between 2001 and 2020 were thoroughly analysed using GIS (geographic information system) and USLE (universal soil loss equation) models. The soil erosion risk in the Hulan River Basin between 2001 and 2020 was also studied and soil erosion hot spots were identified to target those that remained significant even under the implementation of soil conservation measures. Precipitation data were used to obtain the R factor distribution, LULC classification was adopted to assess the C factor distribution, soil data were employed to estimate the K factor distribution, DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data were used to generate an LS factor map, and slope and LULC data were considered to produce a P factor distribution map. These factors were based on the model parameters of the USLE. The findings of LULC change analysis over the last 20 years indicated that, while there have been nonobvious changes, agricultural land has continued to occupy the bulk of the area in the Hulan River Basin. The increase in areas used for human activities was the most notable trend. In 2001, the model-predicted soil erosion rate varied between 0 and 120 t/ha/yr, with an average of 4.63 t/ha/yr. By 2020, the estimated soil erosion rate varied between 0 and 193 t/ha/yr, with an average of 7.34 t/ha/yr. The Hulan River Basin was classified into five soil erosion risk categories. Most categories encompassed extremely low-risk levels and, over the past 20 years, the northeastern hilly regions of the basin have experienced the highest concentration of risk change areas. The northeastern hilly and mountainous regions comprised the risk change area and the regions that are most susceptible to erosion exhibited a high concentration of human production activities. In fact, the combined use of GIS and USLE modelling yielded erosion risk areas for mapping risk classes; these results could further assist local governments in improving soil conservation efforts.

In this study, the future snowmelt runoff in the chilly northeast region’s Tangwang River Basin was simulated and predicted using the SWAT model, which was built and used based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate model. This study conducted a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of snowmelt runoff using high-resolution DEM, land use, and soil data, along with data from historical and future climatic scenarios. Using box plots and the Bflow digital filtering approach, this study first determined the snowmelt runoff period before precisely defining the snowmelt periods. Sensitivity analysis and parameter rate determination ensured the simulation accuracy of the SWAT model, and the correlation coefficients of the total runoff validation period and rate period were 0.75 and 0.76, with Nashiness coefficients of 0.75 for both. The correlation coefficients of the snowmelt runoff were 0.73 and 0.74, with Nashiness coefficients of 0.7 and 0.68 for both, and the model was in good agreement with the measured data. It was discovered that while temperatures indicate an increasing tendency across all future climate scenarios, precipitation is predicted to increase under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SSP2-4.5 scenario predicted a decreasing trend regarding runoff, while the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed an increasing trend with little overall change and the SSP5-8.5 scenario even showed a decrease of 6.35%. These differences were evident in the monthly runoff simulation projections. Overall, the findings point to the possibility that, despite future climate change having a negligible effect on the hydrological cycle of the Tangwang River Basin, it may intensify and increase the frequency of extreme weather events, creating difficulties for the management of water resources and the issuing of flood warnings. For the purpose of planning water resources and studying hydrological change in this basin and other basins in cold regions, this study offers a crucial scientific foundation. An in-depth study of snowmelt runoff is of great practical significance for optimizing water resource management, rational planning of water use, spring flood prevention, and disaster mitigation and prevention, and provides valuable data support for future research on snowmelt runoff.