The blossoming of cryptocurrencies during the last decade has largely influenced both the financial and the technological world. Bitcoin emerged on the edge of the financial crisis in 2008, signaling the very beginning of a financial and technological innovation, which in continuance would eventually create a lot of questions and debate previously unforeseeable. This paper aims to explore the impact of factors such as trading volume, information demand, stock returns, and exchange rates on the volatility of returns for decentralized and unbacked cryptocurrencies from 2016 to 2022 by employing the GARCH model. Based on each coin’s innate functional characteristics and market performance quantified by their respective market capitalization, the selection included Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP as representative crypto coins for the category of decentralized and unbacked cryptocurrencies. The implementation of correlation analysis and the use of the GARCH model on influencing factors for each coin revealed that decentralized and unbacked cryptocurrencies are positively related to trading volume, information demand, and exchange rates while being indifferent to a certain extent to the stock market returns of the world stock index MSCI ACWI. The results of this study provide further insight into the behavior of cryptocurrency return volatility in the new, ever-changing, and highly unpredictable crypto market as well as aid investors in their decision-making process concerning portfolio optimization.

Insurance is essential for financial risk protection, but claim management is complex and requires accurate classification and forecasting strategies. This study aimed to empirically evaluate the performance of classification algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, and Naïve Bayes to predict high insurance claims. The research analyses the variables of claims, vehicles, and insured parties that influence the classification of high-cost claims. This investigation utilizes a dataset comprising 802 observations of bodily injury claims from the motor liability portfolio of a private insurance company in Albania, covering the period from 2018 to 2024. In order to evaluate and compare the performance of the models, we employed evaluation criteria, including classification accuracy (CA), area under the curve (AUC), confusion matrix, and error rates. We found that Random Forest performs better, achieving the highest classification accuracy (CA = 0.8867, AUC = 0.9437) with the lowest error rates, followed by the XGBoost model. At the same time, logistic regression demonstrated the weakest performance. Key predictive factors in high claim classification include claim type, deferred period, vehicle brand and age of driver. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning models in improving claim classification and risk assessment and refine underwriting policy.

This article investigates the effectiveness of various classification techniques in predicting financial distress for Albanian firms. The dataset includes 16 financial ratios from the financial statements of 187 of the largest non-financial businesses operating in Albania, covering the period from 2011 up to 2014, and ranked by 2014 revenues. The methods used in predicting financial distress are logistic regression, Ada Boost, Naïve Bayes, decision trees, support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and random forest. To compare the effectiveness of the models applied we used Classification Accuracy (CA), confusion matrix, and area under the curve (AUC) as evaluation criteria. The results demonstrate the superior predictive ability of ensemble methods, with random forest achieving more accurate forecasts than other methods, followed by Ada Boost. The research contributes to the literature by showing the added value of machine learning models in emerging markets with unique practice and economic conditions and proposing an alternative classification approach for the classification of financial distress when lacking bankruptcy data. Finally, the empirical findings evidence that the strengths of ensemble learning methods are reinforced in unbalanced not-big datasets of a unique emerging economy. These insights are relevant for lending institutions and researchers aiming to refine credit risk models in unique markets where access to relevant data is a challenge.

Financial technologies (Fintech) have rapidly reshaped access to financial services, particularly in developing countries where traditional banking remains limited. This study investigates fintech’s role in advancing financial inclusion by analyzing panel data from 89 developing economies gathered from Global Findex reports (2011–2021), complemented by International Monetary Fund (IMF), UNU-WIDER, and PRIO datasets. We applied a random-effects regression model and GMM, incorporating fintech adoption alongside macroeconomic and institutional variables such as education, governance quality, and trade openness. Our results show that fintech is the most significant driver of financial inclusion, especially in expanding account ownership, with education and institutional quality further enhancing outcomes. Conversely, we show that population growth and income disparities constrain progress, while government expenditure and GDP growth display mixed effects. We also find that fintech reduces transaction costs and barriers, yet its impact depends on digital literacy, infrastructure, and governance. In conclusion, our findings highlight that fintech represents a transformative but unevenly utilized tool, capable of fostering broader economic participation and reducing inequality when paired with supportive policies and institutional frameworks.

This study examines the ability of asymmetric GARCH-family models, specifically EGARCH and GJR-GARCH, to capture and forecast the volatility of major decentralized cryptocurrencies. We analyzed the returns of seven leading assets (BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, LTC, XLM, DASH). We used the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (CFGI) as a dummy variable, covering a period when all cryptocurrencies were active simultaneously. Notably, the Student-t distribution provided the best in-sample results with the lowest AIC and BIC for both models. When comparing the models directly, EGARCH consistently outperforms GJR-GARCH across in-sample metrics. The use of the CFGI dummy variable marginally improves in-sample results for only three of the seven cryptocurrencies, suggesting it may be adding noise to the models for some coins. Additionally, there is no clear rule of asymmetry across all cryptocurrencies, suggesting a fundamental structural difference from the traditional stock market. Out-of-sample metrics and performance vary more than in-sample metrics, with normal and GJR-GARCH models yielding better performance and lower QLIKE values for specific cryptocurrencies. This study contributes to the growing literature on volatility modeling and forecasting in cryptocurrencies, highlighting the importance of asset-specific valuation in the cryptocurrency market. It also provides a framework for integrating specific market indicators into the modeling framework.