With the acceleration of global urbanization, the ecosystem services (ES) and ecological balance of nature reserves have been significantly impacted. However, quantitative assessments of the multiple contributions of nature reserves to urban ecological sustainability are still lacking. This study selects Panjin, a wetland city in China (3788 km²), as the study area, utilizing the InVEST model to quantify ES (water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality), and employing redundancy analysis to explore the influencing factors. Ecological source areas were identified, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) score was calculated to systematically evaluate the contribution of nature reserves. The results indicate that from 1990 to 2010, the built-up area of Panjin increased by approximately 159%, leading to a reduction in carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality by 20%, 4%, and 14%, respectively. From 2010 to 2020, ecological restoration policies resulted in a 63% increase in ES compared to 2010. Nature reserves played a crucial role in maintaining ecological stability, providing over 40% of the ecological source areas while occupying only 24% of the city’s area and contributing more than 30% to the overall urban ecological sustainability. This study is the first to systematically assess the multiple contributions of nature reserves to urban ecological sustainability, providing ecological management recommendations for policymakers based on innovative environmental indicators and methods to support sustainable urban development.

Desertification sensitivity in semi-arid urbanizing regions remains a critical challenge for sustainable land management. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics (2018–2022) of desertification sensitivity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei core region using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), soil texture, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and nighttime light data. Using a GIS-based model, we found a decline in overall desertification sensitivity, with vegetation degradation (post-2020) emerging as a key factor. Key recommendations include optimizing urban spatial patterns via ecological red lines, prioritizing vegetation restoration in high-sensitivity zones, and establishing dynamic remote sensing-based monitoring systems. These strategies aim to coordinate urban growth with ecological resilience, offering actionable pathways for semi-arid regions facing similar pressures. Future work should integrate socioeconomic drivers to refine adaptive governance frameworks.

This study compares and analyzes the impact of land use changes on ecosystem services and ecological security in different ecological backgrounds in Stockholm and Panjin. Using Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Circuit Theory, the dynamic changes in ecosystem services and ecological security patterns are assessed in these two regions. Based on the characteristics and land use changes from 2000 to 2020, four scenarios for 2050 are simulated using the PLUS model: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Priority Urban Development (PUD), Priority Ecological Protection (PEP), and Balanced Urban-Ecological Development.The results show that in Panjin, the growth rate of construction land was 21.49% from 2000 to 2020, and when this probability was applied to the transfer probability of Priority Urban Development in the Stockholm region, there was a significant change in the ecological security pattern. In contrast, in Stockholm County, the correlation between the change rates of all land use types and other indicators was weak, suggesting limited influence of these factors on land use changes. However, in Panjin, there was a strong positive correlation between the change rates of construction land, unused land, and population and GDP. This implies that in regions with lower economic levels, there is a higher dependence on ecosystem services and ecological security patterns compared to higher economic regions.Observations reveal an increase in forest and grassland area in Panjin City. However, the distribution of high-value ecological source areas is not concentrated enough and exhibits a high rate of change. In contrast, the Stockholm region has maintained a stable pattern of ecological source areas over the past 20 years. The Stockholm region has developed a relatively reasonable ecological security pattern, which is the result of continuous ecological protection and planning efforts over many years.