Market inefficiency is a latent concept, and it is difficult to be measured by means of a single indicator. In this paper, following both the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and the fractal market hypothesis (FMH), we develop a new time‐varying measure of stock market inefficiency. The proposed measure, called composite efficiency index (CEI), is estimated as the synthesis of the most common efficiency measures such as the returns’ autocorrelation, liquidity, volatility, and a new measure based on the Hurst exponent, called the Hurst efficiency index (HEI). To empirically validate the indicator, we compare different European stock markets in terms of efficiency over time.
Agent‐based models are computational approaches used to reproduce the interactions between economic agents. These models are widely applied in many contexts to get deeper understanding about agents’ behaviors within complex systems. In this paper, we provide a bibliometric analysis about agent‐based models in finance and, considering bibliographic coupling, we identify the presence of two distinct clusters of research communities, i.e., financial economics and econophysics. Cluster‐specific thematic analyses are conducted to understand if the two communities are characterized by different emerging and motor topics. By highlighting several differences in the clusters, we also show the two research communities specialized in different specific topics.
The aim of the work is to estimate the probability weighting function, starting from the time series of the S&P 500 index. After an introduction to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) and the empirical evidence against it, I have introduced the Prospect Theory (PT). Following the studies carried out by Gonzalez et al., I have analyzed w(p) and I have proposed a new estimation method with a two-parameters function. The OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) method provides the alpha and beta coefficients, which represent respectively the curvature and elevation of the weighting function. In the last part of the paper, w(p) has been implemented in the building of the portfolio with random weights.
Implied volatility IV is a key metric in financial markets, reflecting market expectations of future price fluctuations. Research has explored IV's relationship with moneyness, focusing on its connection to the implied Hurst exponent H. Our study reveals that H approaches 1/2 when moneyness equals 1, marking a critical point in market efficiency expectations. We developed an IV model that integrates H to capture these dynamics more effectively. This model considers the interaction between H and the underlying-to-strike price ratio S/K, crucial for capturing IV variations based on moneyness. Using Optuna optimization across multiple indexes, the model outperformed SABR and fSABR in accuracy. This approach provides a more detailed representation of market expectations and IV-H dynamics, improving options pricing and volatility forecasting while enhancing theoretical and pratcical financial analysis.