International consensus recognises four medulloblastoma molecular subgroups: WNT (MBWNT), SHH (MBSHH), group 3 (MBGrp3), and group 4 (MBGrp4), each defined by their characteristic genome-wide transcriptomic and DNA methylomic profiles. These subgroups have distinct clinicopathological and molecular features, and underpin current disease subclassification and initial subgroup-directed therapies that are underway in clinical trials. However, substantial biological heterogeneity and differences in survival are apparent within each subgroup, which remain to be resolved. We aimed to investigate whether additional molecular subgroups exist within childhood medulloblastoma and whether these could be used to improve disease subclassification and prognosis predictions. In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed 428 primary medulloblastoma samples collected from UK Children's Cancer and Leukaemia Group (CCLG) treatment centres (UK), collaborating European institutions, and the UKCCSG-SIOP-PNET3 European clinical trial. An independent validation cohort (n=276) of archival tumour samples was also analysed. We analysed samples from patients with childhood medulloblastoma who were aged 0-16 years at diagnosis, and had central review of pathology and comprehensive clinical data. We did comprehensive molecular profiling, including DNA methylation microarray analysis, and did unsupervised class discovery of test and validation cohorts to identify consensus primary molecular subgroups and characterise their clinical and biological significance. We modelled survival of patients aged 3-16 years in patients (n=215) who had craniospinal irradiation and had been treated with a curative intent. Seven robust and reproducible primary molecular subgroups of childhood medulloblastoma were identified. MBWNT remained unchanged and each remaining consensus subgroup was split in two. MBSHH was split into age-dependent subgroups corresponding to infant (<4·3 years; MBSHH-Infant; n=65) and childhood patients (≥4·3 years; MBSHH-Child; n=38). MBGrp3 and MBGrp4 were each split into high-risk (MBGrp3-HR [n=65] and MBGrp4-HR [n=85]) and low-risk (MBGrp3-LR [n=50] and MBGrp4-LR [n=73]) subgroups. These biological subgroups were validated in the independent cohort. We identified features of the seven subgroups that were predictive of outcome. Cross-validated subgroup-dependent survival models, incorporating these novel subgroups along with secondary clinicopathological and molecular features and established disease risk-factors, outperformed existing disease risk-stratification schemes. These subgroup-dependent models stratified patients into four clinical risk groups for 5-year progression-free survival: favourable risk (54 [25%] of 215 patients; 91% survival [95% CI 82-100]); standard risk (50 [23%] patients; 81% survival [70-94]); high-risk (82 [38%] patients; 42% survival [31-56]); and very high-risk (29 [13%] patients; 28% survival [14-56]). The discovery of seven novel, clinically significant subgroups improves disease risk-stratification and could inform treatment decisions. These data provide a new foundation for future research and clinical investigations. Cancer Research UK, The Tom Grahame Trust, Star for Harris, Action Medical Research, SPARKS, The JGW Patterson Foundation, The INSTINCT network (co-funded by The Brain Tumour Charity, Great Ormond Street Children's Charity, and Children with Cancer UK).

In 2012, an international consensus paper reported that medulloblastoma comprises four molecular subgroups (WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4), each associated with distinct genomic features and clinical behavior. Independently, multiple recent reports have defined further intra-subgroup heterogeneity in the form of biologically and clinically relevant subtypes. However, owing to differences in patient cohorts and analytical methods, estimates of subtype number and definition have been inconsistent, especially within Group 3 and Group 4. Herein, we aimed to reconcile the definition of Group 3/Group 4 MB subtypes through the analysis of a series of 1501 medulloblastomas with DNA-methylation profiling data, including 852 with matched transcriptome data. Using multiple complementary bioinformatic approaches, we compared the concordance of subtype calls between published cohorts and analytical methods, including assessments of class-definition confidence and reproducibility. While the lowest complexity solutions continued to support the original consensus subgroups of Group 3 and Group 4, our analysis most strongly supported a definition comprising eight robust Group 3/Group 4 subtypes (types I–VIII). Subtype II was consistently identified across all component studies, while all others were supported by multiple class-definition methods. Regardless of analytical technique, increasing cohort size did not further increase the number of identified Group 3/Group 4 subtypes. Summarizing the molecular and clinico-pathological features of these eight subtypes indicated enrichment of specific driver gene alterations and cytogenetic events amongst subtypes, and identified highly disparate survival outcomes, further supporting their biological and clinical relevance. Collectively, this study provides continued support for consensus Groups 3 and 4 while enabling robust derivation of, and categorical accounting for, the extensive intertumoral heterogeneity within Groups 3 and 4, revealed by recent high-resolution subclassification approaches. Furthermore, these findings provide a basis for application of emerging methods (e.g., proteomics/single-cell approaches) which may additionally inform medulloblastoma subclassification. Outputs from this study will help shape definition of the next generation of medulloblastoma clinical protocols and facilitate the application of enhanced molecularly guided risk stratification to improve outcomes and quality of life for patients and their families.

We undertook a comprehensive clinical and biological investigation of serial medulloblastoma biopsies obtained at diagnosis and relapse. Combined MYC family amplifications and P53 pathway defects commonly emerged at relapse, and all patients in this group died of rapidly progressive disease postrelapse. To study this interaction, we investigated a transgenic model of MYCN-driven medulloblastoma and found spontaneous development of Trp53 inactivating mutations. Abrogation of p53 function in this model produced aggressive tumors that mimicked characteristics of relapsed human tumors with combined P53-MYC dysfunction. Restoration of p53 activity and genetic and therapeutic suppression of MYCN all reduced tumor growth and prolonged survival. Our findings identify P53-MYC interactions at medulloblastoma relapse as biomarkers of clinically aggressive disease that may be targeted therapeutically.

Disease relapse occurs in around 30% of children with medulloblastoma, and is almost universally fatal. We aimed to establish whether the clinical and molecular characteristics of the disease at diagnosis are associated with the nature of relapse and subsequent disease course, and whether these associations could inform clinical management. In this multicentre cohort study we comprehensively surveyed the clinical features of medulloblastoma relapse (time to relapse, pattern of relapse, time from relapse to death, and overall outcome) in centrally reviewed patients who relapsed following standard upfront therapies, from 16 UK Children's Cancer and Leukaemia Group institutions and four collaborating centres. We compared these relapse-associated features with clinical and molecular features at diagnosis, including established and recently described molecular features, prognostic factors, and treatment at diagnosis and relapse. 247 patients (175 [71%] boys and 72 [29%] girls) with medulloblastoma relapse (median year of diagnosis 2000 [IQR 1995-2006]) were included in this study. 17 patients were later excluded from further analyses because they did not meet the age and treatment criteria for inclusion. Patients who received upfront craniospinal irradiation (irradiated group; 178 [72%] patients) had a more prolonged time to relapse compared with patients who did not receive upfront craniospinal irradiation (non-irradiated group; 52 [21%] patients; p<0·0001). In the non-irradiated group, craniospinal irradiation at relapse (hazard ratio [HR] 0·27, 95% CI 0·11-0·68) and desmoplastic/nodular histology (0·23, 0·07-0·77) were associated with prolonged time to death after relapse, MYC amplification was associated with a reduced overall survival (23·52, 4·85-114·05), and re-resection at relapse was associated with longer overall survival (0·17, 0·05-0·57). In the irradiated group, patients with MBGroup3 tumours relapsed significantly more quickly than did patients with MBGroup4 tumours (median 1·34 [0·99-1·89] years vs 2·04 [1·39-3·42 years; p=0·0043). Distant disease was prevalent in patients with MBGroup3 (23 [92%] of 25 patients) and MBGroup4 (56 [90%] of 62 patients) tumour relapses. Patients with distantly-relapsed MBGroup3 and MBGroup4 displayed both nodular and diffuse patterns of disease whereas isolated nodular relapses were rare in distantly-relapsed MBSHH (1 [8%] of 12 distantly-relapsed MBSHH were nodular alone compared with 26 [34%] of 77 distantly-relapsed MBGroup3 and MBGroup4). In MBGroup3 and MBGroup4, nodular disease was associated with a prolonged survival after relapse (HR 0·42, 0·21-0·81). Investigation of second-generation MBGroup3 and MBGroup4 molecular subtypes refined our understanding of heterogeneous relapse characteristics. Subtype VIII had prolonged time to relapse and subtype II had a rapid time from relapse to death. Subtypes II, III, and VIII developed a significantly higher incidence of distant disease at relapse whereas subtypes V and VII did not (equivalent rates to diagnosis). This study suggests that the nature and outcome of medulloblastoma relapse are biology and therapy-dependent, providing translational opportunities for improved disease management through biology-directed disease surveillance, post-relapse prognostication, and risk-stratified selection of second-line treatment strategies. Cancer Research UK, Action Medical Research, The Tom Grahame Trust, The JGW Patterson Foundation, Star for Harris, The Institute of Child Health - Newcastle University - Institute of Child Health High-Risk Childhood Brain Tumour Network (co-funded by The Brain Tumour Charity, Great Ormond Street Children's Charity, and Children with Cancer UK).

Most children with medulloblastoma fall within the standard-risk clinical disease group defined by absence of high-risk features (metastatic disease, large-cell/anaplastic histology, and MYC amplification), which includes 50-60% of patients and has a 5-year event-free survival of 75-85%. Within standard-risk medulloblastoma, patients in the WNT subgroup are established as having a favourable prognosis; however, outcome prediction for the remaining majority of patients is imprecise. We sought to identify novel prognostic biomarkers to enable improved risk-adapted therapies. The HIT-SIOP PNET 4 trial recruited 338 patients aged 4-21 years with medulloblastoma between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2006, in 120 treatment institutions in seven European countries to investigate hyperfractionated radiotherapy versus standard radiotherapy. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the remaining tumour samples from patients in the HIT-SIOP PNET 4 trial (n=136). We assessed the clinical behaviour of the molecularly defined WNT and SHH subgroups, and identified novel independent prognostic markers and models for standard-risk patients with non-WNT/non-SHH disease. Because of the scarcity and low quality of available genomic material, we used a mass spectrometry-minimal methylation classifier assay (MS-MIMIC) to assess methylation subgroup and a molecular inversion probe array to detect genome-wide copy number aberrations. Prognostic biomarkers and models identified were validated in an independent, demographically matched cohort (n=70) of medulloblastoma patients with non-WNT/non-SHH standard-risk disease treated with conventional therapies (maximal surgical resection followed by adjuvant craniospinal irradiation [all patients] and chemotherapy [65 of 70 patients], at UK Children's Cancer and Leukaemia Group and European Society for Paediatric Oncology (SIOPE) associated treatment centres between 1990 and 2014. These samples were analysed by Illumina 450k DNA methylation microarray. HIT-SIOP PNET 4 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01351870. We analysed methylation subgroup, genome-wide copy number aberrations, and mutational features in 136 assessable tumour samples from the HIT-SIOP PNET 4 cohort, representing 40% of the 338 patients in the trial cohort. This cohort of 136 samples consisted of 28 (21%) classified as WNT, 17 (13%) as SHH, and 91 (67%) as non-WNT/non-SHH (we considered Group3 and Group4 medulloblastoma together in our analysis because of their similar molecular and clinical features). Favourable outcomes for WNT tumours were confirmed in patients younger than 16 years, and all relapse events in SHH (four [24%] of 17) occurred in patients with TP53 mutation (TP53mut) or chromosome 17p loss. A novel whole chromosomal aberration signature associated with increased ploidy and multiple non-random whole chromosomal aberrations was identified in 38 (42%) of the 91 samples from patients with non-WNT/non-SHH medulloblastoma in the HIT-SIOP PNET 4 cohort. Biomarkers associated with this whole chromosomal aberration signature (at least two of chromosome 7 gain, chromosome 8 loss, and chromosome 11 loss) predicted favourable prognosis. Patients with non-WNT/non-SHH medulloblastoma could be reclassified by these markers as having favourable-risk or high-risk disease. In patients in the HIT-SIOP PNET4 cohort with non-WNT/non-SHH medulloblastoma, with a median follow-up of 6·7 years (IQR 5·8-8·2), 5-year event-free survival was 100% in the favourable-risk group and 68% (95% CI 57·5-82·7; p=0·00014) in the high-risk group. In the validation cohort, with a median follow-up of 5·6 years (IQR 3·1-8·1), 5-year event-free survival was 94·7% (95% CI 85·2-100) in the favourable-risk group and 58·6% (95% CI 45·1-76·1) in the high-risk group (hazard ratio 9·41, 95% CI 1·25-70·57; p=0·029). Our comprehensive molecular investigation identified subgroup-specific risk models which allowed 69 (51%) of 134 accessible patients from the standard-risk medulloblastoma HIT-SIOP PNET 4 cohort to be assigned to a favourable-risk group. We define a whole chromosomal signature that allows the assignment of non-WNT/non-SHH medulloblastoma patients normally classified as standard-risk into favourable-risk and high-risk categories. In addition to patients younger than 16 years with WNT tumours, patients with non-WNT/non-SHH tumours with our defined whole chromosomal aberration signature and patients with SHH-TP53wild-type tumours should be considered for therapy de-escalation in future biomarker-driven, risk-adapted clinical trials. The remaining subgroups of patients with high-risk medulloblastoma might benefit from more intensive therapies. Cancer Research UK, Swedish Childhood Cancer Foundation, French Ministry of Health/French National Cancer Institute, and the German Children's Cancer Foundation.

Medulloblastoma is currently subclassified into distinct DNA methylation subgroups/subtypes with particular clinico-molecular features. Using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) in large, well-annotated cohorts of medulloblastoma, we show that transcriptionally group 3 and group 4 medulloblastomas exist as intermediates on a bipolar continuum between archetypal group 3 and group 4 entities. Continuum position is prognostic, reflecting a propensity for specific DNA copy-number changes, and specific switches in isoform/enhancer usage and RNA editing. Examining single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) profiles, we show that intratumoral transcriptional heterogeneity along the continuum is limited in a subtype-dependent manner. By integrating with a human scRNA-seq reference atlas, we show that this continuum is mirrored by an equivalent continuum of transcriptional cell types in early fetal cerebellar development. We identify distinct developmental niches for all four major subgroups and link each to a common developmental antecedent. Our findings show a transcriptional continuum arising from oncogenic disruption of highly specific fetal cerebellar cell types, linked to almost every aspect of group 3/group 4 molecular biology and clinico-pathology.