In the context of uneven-aged mixed-species forest management, an individual-tree basal area increment model considering forest structural diversity was developed for oaks (Quercus spp.) using data collected from 11,860 observations in 845 sample plots from the 7th (2004), 8th (2009), and 9th (2014) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Hunan Province, south-central China. Since the data was longitudinal and had a nested structure, we used a linear mixed-effects approach to construct the model. We also used the variance function and an autocorrelation structure to describe within-plot heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. Finally, the optimal mixed-effects model was determined based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), log-likelihood (Loglik) and the likelihood ratio test (LRT). The results indicate that the reciprocal transformation of initial diameter at breast height (1/DBH), relative density index (RD), number of trees per hectare (NT), elevation (EL) and Gini coefficient (GC) had a significant impact on the individual-tree basal area increment. In comparison to the basic model developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, the mixed-effects model performance was greatly improved. In addition, we observed that the heteroscedasticity was successfully removed by the exponent function and autocorrelation was significantly corrected by AR(1). Our final model also indicated that forest structural diversity significantly affected tree growth and hence should not be neglected. We hope that our final model will contribute to the scientific management of oak-dominated forests.

Forest biomass and carbon storage models are crucial for inventorying, monitoring, and assessing forest resources. This study develops models specific to China’s diverse forests, offering a methodological foundation for national carbon storage estimation and a quantitative basis for national, regional, and global carbon sequestration projections. Utilizing data from 52,700 permanent plots obtained during China’s 9th national forest inventory, we calculated biomass and carbon storage per hectare for 35 tree species groups using respective individual tree biomass models and carbon factors. We then constructed a three-level volume-based model system for forest biomass and carbon storage, applying weighted regression, dummy variable modeling, and simultaneous equations with error-in-variables. This system encompasses one population of forests, three forest categories (level I), 20 forest types (level II), and 74 forest sub-types (level III). Finally, the assessment of these models was carried out with six evaluation indices, and comparative analyses with previously established biomass models of three major forest types were conducted. Determination coefficients (R²) for the population average model, and three dummy models on levels I, II, and III, exceed 0.78, 0.85, 0.92, and 0.95, respectively, with corresponding mean prediction errors (MPEs) of 0.42%, 0.34%, 0.24%, and 0.19%, and mean percent standard errors (MPSEs) of approximately 22%, 21%, 15%, and 12%. Models for 20 forest types and 74 sub-types yield R² values above 0.87 and 0.85, with MPE values below 3% and 5%, respectively. Notably, the estimates of previous biomass models of three major forest types demonstrated considerable uncertainty, with TRE ranging from −20% to 74%. However, accuracy has improved with larger sample sizes. In total biomass and carbon storage estimations, the R² values of dummy models for levels I, II, and III progressively increase and MPSE and MPE values decrease, whereas TRE approximates zero. The tiered model system of simultaneous equations developed herein offers a quantitative framework for precise evaluations of biomass and carbon storage on different scales. For enhanced accuracy in such estimations, applying level III models is recommended whenever feasible, especially for national estimation.

Prediction of forest carbon sink in the future is important for understanding mechanisms concerning the increase in carbon sinks and emission reduction, and for realizing the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and global carbon neutrality. Based on stand volume data of permanent monitoring plots of the successive national forest inventories from 2004 to 2018, and combined with multiple variables, such as climatic factors, soil properties, stand attributes, and topographic features, the random forest algorithm was used to predict the stand volume growth-loss and then calculated the forest biomass and its carbon sink potential between 2015 to 2060 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China. From 2015 to 2060, the predicted forest biomass carbon storage and density increased from 3053.27 to 6721.61 Tg C and from 33.75 to 66.12 Mg C hm⁻², respectively. The predicted forest biomass carbon sink decreased from 90.58 to 73.98 Tg C yr⁻¹, and the average forest biomass carbon storage and sink were ranked in descending order: Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. The forest biomass carbon storage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will increase by 3.67 Pg C from 2015 to 2060. The proportion of forest C sinks on the regional scale to C emissions on the national scale will increase from 2.9% in 2021–2030 to 4.3% in 2041–2050. These results indicate higher forest carbon sequestration efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the future. Our results also suggest that improved forest management in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River will help to enhance forest carbon sink in the future.