Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a serious public health problem. This study aims to establish a combined model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models based on an L1-norm to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province, China. The monthly incidences of AIDS in Henan province from 2012 to 2020 were obtained from the Health Commission of Henan Province. A SARIMA model, a Prophet model, and two combined models were adopted to fit the monthly incidence of AIDS using the data from January 2012 to December 2019. The data from January 2020 to December 2020 was used to verify. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the prediction effect among the models. The results showed that the monthly incidence fluctuated from 0.05 to 0.50 per 100,000 individuals, and the monthly incidence of AIDS had a certain periodicity in Henan province. In addition, the prediction effect of the Prophet model was better than SARIMA model, the combined model was better than the single models, and the combined model based on the L1-norm had the best effect values (MSE = 0.0056, MAE = 0.0553, MAPE = 43.5337). This indicated that, compared with the L2-norm, the L1-norm improved the prediction accuracy of the combined model. The combined model of SARIMA and Prophet based on the L1-norm is a suitable method to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan. Our findings can provide theoretical evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AIDS prevention.

Aims: We investigated the association between vascular medication adherence, assessed by different methods, and the risk of cardio-cerebrovascular events and all-cause mortality. Methods: A meta-analysis with a systematic search of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases from inception date to 21 June 2021 was used to identify relevant studies that had evaluated the association between cardiovascular medication adherence levels and cardiovascular events (CVEs), stroke, and all-cause mortality risks. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects meta-analysis. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. Results: We identified 46 articles in the dose-response meta-analysis. The dose-response analysis indicated that a 20% increment in cardiovascular medication, antihypertensive medication, and lipid-lowering medication adherence level were associated with 9% (RR: 0.91, 95% CI 0.88–0.94), 7% (RR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.84–1.03), and 10% (RR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.88–0.92) lowers risk of CVEs, respectively. The reduced risk of stroke respectively was 16% (RR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81–0.87), 17% (RR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89), and 13% (RR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.84–0.91). The reduced risk of all-cause mortality respectively was 10% (RR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.87–0.92), 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.82–0.94), and 9% (RR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89–0.94). Conclusions: A better medication adherence level was associated with a reduced risk of cardio-cerebrovascular events and all-cause mortality.