With the increasing frequency of various uncertainties and disturbances faced by urban systems, urban resilience is one of the vital components of the sustainability of modern cities. An indicator system is constructed to measure the resilience levels of the Yichang–Jingzhou–Jingmen–Enshi (YJJE) urban agglomeration during 2010–2023 based on four domains—economy, ecology, society, and infrastructure. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal differentiation of resilience in YJJE in conjunction with the entropy weight method, Getis–Ord Gi* model, and robustness testing. Then, the factor contribution model is used to discern key driving elements of urban resilience. Finally, the CA-Markov model is implemented to predict urban resilience in 2030. The results reveal that the values of resilience in YJJE increase at a rate of 3.25%/a and continue to rise, with the differences among cities narrowing over the examined period. Furthermore, the urban resilience exhibits a significant spatially heterogeneity distribution, with Xiling, Wujiagang, Xiaoting, Yidu, Zhijiang, Dianjun, Dangyang, Yuan’an, Yiling, and Duodao being the high-value agglomerations of urban resilience, and Hefeng, Jianli, Shishou, and Wufeng being the low-value agglomerations of urban resilience. The marked heterogeneity of resilience in the YJJE urban agglomeration reflects the disparity in economic progress across the study area. The total amount of urban social retail, financial expenditure per capita, GDP per capita, park green space area, urban disposable income per capita, and number of buses per 10,000 people surface as the key influencing factors in relation to urban resilience. Finally, the levels of resilience among cities within YJJE will reach the medium level or higher than medium level in 2030. Xiling, Wujiagang, Xiaoting, Zhijiang, Dianjun, Dangyang, and Yuan’an will remain significant hot spots of urban resilience, while Jianli will remain a significant cold spot. In a nutshell, this paper can provide scientific references and policy recommendations for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers on the aspects of urban resilience and sustainable city.

In the context of global urbanization and climatic change, the frequency of various uncertainties and disturbances faced by urban system is increasing, and enhancing urban resilience has become one of the vital components of sustainable development of modern cities. At the same time, urban resilience has become a hot topic in interdisciplinary research such as economics, ecology, and geography. This paper constructs urban resilience evaluation indicator system based on four dimensions—economy, ecology, society, and infrastructure. The evaluation indicator is used to measure the resilience levels of Yichang-Jingzhou-Jingmen-Enshi (YJJE) urban agglomeration in China from 2010 to 2023. Using the entropy weight method, the Getis-Ord Gi* model, and the robustness testing, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience in YJJE urban agglomeration. Then, the factor contribution model is used to explore the influencing factors of urban resilience. Finally, the CA-Markov model is used to predict urban resilience in 2030. The results are as follows: From 2010 to 2023, the urban resilience values of all prefecture-level and county-level cities in YJJE urban agglomeration showed an upward trend, and it indicated that the resilience of urban system is improving. Meanwhile, the urban resilience of YJJE urban agglomeration increased with an average annual growth rate of 3.25%. Furthermore, the urban resilience exhibited a significant spatially heterogeneity distribution, with Xiling, Wujiagang, Xiaoting, Yidu, Zhijiang, Dianjun, Dangyang, Yuan’an, Yiling, Duodao being the high-value agglomerations of urban resilience, and Hefeng, Jianli, Shishou, Wufeng being the low-value agglomerations of urban resilience. Then, we identified critical driving factors of urban resilience in YJJE urban agglomeration. Finally, the urban resilience of all cities within YJJE urban agglomeration will reach the medium level or higher than medium level in 2030. Xiling, Wujiagang, Xiaoting, Zhijiang, Dianjun, Dangyang, Yuan’an will remain hot spots of urban resilience, while Jianli will remain cold spots of urban resilience in the future. This study can provide the scientific reference and policy recommendation for the government to build resilient cities and improve sustainable urban development.