Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up. Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger–cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix domain coupled to a preferential flow domain. The second part is a soil mechanics model and is used to compute the spatial and temporal distribution of the local factor of safety based on the water pressure distribution computed with the subsurface flow model. Two types of rainfall events were considered: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall, and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. The effect of preferential flow on slope stability is assessed through comparison of the failure area when subsurface flow is simulated with the dual-permeability model as compared to a single-permeability model (no preferential flow). For the low-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a positive effect on drainage of the hillslope resulting in a smaller failure area. For the high-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a negative effect on the slope stability as the majority of rainfall infiltrates into the preferential flow domain when rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of the matrix domain, resulting in larger water pressure and a larger failure area.

Many mountainous areas in Campania, southern Italy, are characterized by steep slopes covered by unsaturated volcanic deposits. Shallow landslides are frequently triggered by intense and persistent rainfall events, often turning into debris flows that cause huge damage and casualties. Field hydrological monitoring is a useful tool to develop consistent models of slope response to rainfall, in terms of soil suction and moisture, and to define landslide triggering conditions. This is one of the reasons why since 2002 field monitoring is being carried out in Cervinara, around 50 km northeast of Naples. Since October 2009, rainfall height, soil suction and water content at several locations and depths along the slope are automatically being monitored. The data collected help to demonstrate the effectiveness of such a system for better understanding the hydrological processes occurring in similar slopes of Campania, allowing to distinguish between seasonal suction fluctuations, related to long-term meteorological forcing, and short-term response to rainstorms.