The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local‐scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of thePREDICTSproject (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems –https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html). We make site‐level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

In the context of global warming and increasing impacts of invasive plants and animals, we examine how positive fire–vegetation feedbacks are increasing the vulnerability of pyrophobic temperate forests to conversion to pyrophytic non‐forest vegetation in southern South America and New Zealand. We extensively review the relevant literature to reveal how these temperate southern hemisphere floras have generated similar positive fire–vegetation feedback mechanisms resulting in increased vulnerability to anthropogenically altered fire regimens. For the two regions, we address the following questions. 1. What are the major plant species, physiognomic types and functional types characteristic of pyrophytic versus pyrophobic vegetation types and how do their traits affect flammability, resistance to fire and recovery after fire? 2. What are the roles of herbivory and microclimate in enhancing fire–vegetation feedbacks? 3. Are there similarities in trends of cover type transitions in relation to altered fire regimens? 4. How are climate change, land‐use trends and the effects of introduced plants and animals affecting the vulnerability of these ecosystems to fire‐induced transitions to alternative stable states? Most temperate forests of New Zealand and southern South America evolved under conditions of low fire frequencies so few taxa became adapted to recurrent fire. Current dichotomous landscapes consisting of juxtaposed pyrophobic and pyrophytic vegetation types are the outcome of the expansion of fire‐resilient and fire‐promoting species associated with the arrival of humans. Despite considerable differences in human history and biogeographic history, the case studies presented here show remarkable parallels in life‐history traits of the key pyrophobic taxa, fire–vegetation feedback mechanisms, overall ecosystem responses to anthropogenic alteration of fire regimens, and likely vulnerability to expected global change influences on future fire regimens.