Carbon-isotope values of bulk organic matter from high-altitude lakes on Mount Kenya and Mount Elgon, East Africa, were 10 to 14 per mil higher during glacial times than they are today. Compound-specific isotope analyses of leaf waxes and algal biomarkers show that organisms possessing CO ₂ -concentrating mechanisms, including C ₄ grasses and freshwater algae, were primarily responsible for this large increase. Carbon limitation due to lower ambient CO ₂ partial pressures had a significant impact on the distribution of forest on the tropical mountains, in addition to climate. Hence, tree line elevation should not be used to infer palaeotemperatures.

High-resolution profiles of the mass accumulation rate of biogenic silica and other geochemical proxies in two piston cores from northern Lake Malawi provide a climate signal for this part of tropical Africa spanning the past 25,000 years. The biogenic silica mass accumulation rate was low during the relatively dry late Pleistocene, when the river flux of silica to the lake was suppressed. Millennial-scale fluctuations, due to upwelling intensity, in the late Pleistocene climate of the Lake Malawi basin appear to have been closely linked to the Northern Hemisphere climate until 11 thousand years ago. Relatively cold conditions in the Northern Hemisphere coincided with more frequent north winds over the Malawi basin, perhaps resulting from a more southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).