Summary: Recent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest. A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire‐responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France. The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post‐fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity. Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post‐fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post‐fire recovery. Including plant fire‐responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean‐type vegetation under climate‐change scenarios.

Since the early 1990s, Mediterranean gorse shrublands have expanded significantly in the Mediterranean regions of Spain mainly as a result of the increase in the frequency and extension of forest fires. Mediterranean gorse (Ulex parviflorus), which has been described as a degradation stage of forest communities after fire, has also been described as a fire-prone community. Thus, its presence increases the risk that new fires might occur. In spite of this evidence, there is little information on both the composition and structural characteristics of these communities or the relationship that might exist between these vegetation characteristics and fire behaviour. In this paper we present the results of a characterization of the vegetative structure (plant density, specific composition, biomass fractions, and horizontal and vertical fuel distribution) in Mediterranean gorse. We also analyse fire behaviour using indicators obtained at different scales. Our results show mature Mediterranean gorse shrublands to be communities with high biomass values (3000–4000 g m-2) and high horizontal and vertical vegetation continuity, in which the proportion of fine dead fuel fractions with low moisture content is around 50% of the total phytomass present. Ulex parviflorus is the dominant species and its degree of dominance is a key element in the behaviour of fire. Both the fire-line intensity values and the fire severity values observed can be considered high with respect to those observed in other Mediterranean communities, thus confirming Mediterranean gorse as a high-risk community.