High soil moisture due to frequent excessive precipitation can lead to reductions in maize grain yields and increased nitrogen (N) loss. The traditional methods of computing N status in crops are destructive and time-consuming, especially in waterlogged fields. Therefore, in this study, we used unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing to evaluate the status of maize under different N rates and excessive soil moisture conditions. The experiment was performed using a split plot design with four replications, with soil moisture conditions as main plots and different N rates as sub-plots. The artificial intelligence SciPy (version 1.5.2) optimization algorithm and spherical function were used to estimate the economically optimum N rate under the different treatments. The computed EONR for CRS 2022 was 157 kg N ha⁻¹ for both treatments, with the maximum net return to N of USD 1203 ha⁻¹. In 2023, the analysis suggested a lower maximum attainable yield in excessive water conditions, with EONR pushed up to 197 kg N ha⁻¹ as compared to 185 kg N ha⁻¹ in the control treatment, resulting in a lower maximum net return to N of USD 884 ha⁻¹ as compared to USD 1019 ha⁻¹ in the control treatment. This study reveals a slight reduction of the fraction of NDRE at EONR to maximum NDRE under excessive water conditions, highlighting the need for addressing such abiotic stress circumstances when arriving at an N rate recommendation based on an N-rich strip concept. This study confirms the importance of sensing technology for N monitoring in maize, particularly in supporting decision making in nutrient management under adverse weather conditions.

Accurate in-season rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield prediction is crucial for improved nitrogen management and climate-smart decision making, yet rigorous comparative benchmarking of machine learning (ML) models using multi-temporal UAV spectral data with independent temporal validation remains limited. This study systematically evaluated four ML algorithms (Random Forest, XGBoost, Neural Network, and Linear Regression) and two Bayesian model averaging ensembles for rice yield prediction using UAV multispectral imagery. Field experiments spanning three growing seasons (2023–2025) at Louisiana State University comprised 9–10 varieties and six nitrogen rates (0–235 kg N ha⁻¹; 576 plots). Vegetation indices and spectral bands from three growth stages were extracted as predictors. Models were compared using 300 random train–test iterations with systematic hyperparameter optimization, followed by independent validation on 2025 data. Among the individual models, XGBoost achieved the highest internal accuracy (R² = 0.87, RMSE = 0.85 t ha⁻¹), substantially outperforming Linear Regression (R² = 0.66, RMSE = 1.32 t ha⁻¹), while reduced BMA reached R² = 0.89. XGBoost demonstrated robust temporal generalization (R² = 0.62, NRMSE = 8.47%) despite environmental variation. The Enhanced Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Red Edge at 90 days after planting (reproductive stage) were the most stable predictors across 300 iterations. Tree-based ML models substantially outperform traditional linear approaches, providing reliable pre-harvest yield forecasting for operational precision rice production.