The predictability of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly limited by the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Our observational analysis suggests that considering high‐frequency wind components during the spring season may mitigate the SPB impact on ENSO predictability. The intraseasonal zonal wind in March over the equatorial western Pacific initially perturbs the sea surface temperature (SST). It contributes nearly 40% of the east‐west SST gradient after 2–3 months, ranking first among other calendar months. This significant contribution causes March to become the earliest month to effectively indicate the following ENSO direction due to the active eastward‐propagating Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) activity. Through the obvious variation of the eastward‐propagating MJO speed, it also shows the possible close relationship between the mean SST state and the interdecadal variability in intraseasonal zonal wind. Additionally, the current strong variability of intraseasonal zonal wind suggests the important role of atmospheric information in recent ENSO development.
Currently, the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) is still a controversial problem in many atmosphere–ocean coupled models and has significant impacts on degrading the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions across the boreal spring. In this study, unlike previous studies that viewed the SPB issue from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST), based on the Bjerknes feedback theory and the decadal variations in Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific, a new perspective of the SPB is revealed by the seasonal variations in the observed zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient, which can reflect the stability and variability of the atmosphere–ocean interactions during the ENSO’s evolution. More importantly, a significant decadal variation of SPB strength (SPBS) is exhibited in the last 3 decades, from 1991 to 2020, which is strongly controlled by the dominant patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and Walker circulation, and associated with the background mean atmosphere–ocean states. That is to say, the atmosphere–ocean interaction pattern over the tropical Pacific has undergone decadal variations over the past 3 decades which determine the decadal variations in SPBS. International Research Institute for Climate and Society/Climate Prediction Center (IRI/CPC) multi-models show stronger SPBS during 2001–2010 than during 2011–2020, indicating that the decadal variations in SPBS from statistical analysis also exist in actual model predictions, which further confirms the rationality of this perspective of SPB based on the zonal SLP gradient.