Plant disease outbreaks are increasing and threaten food security for the vulnerable in many areas of the world. Now a global human pandemic is threatening the health of millions on our planet. A stable, nutritious food supply will be needed to lift people out of poverty and improve health outcomes. Plant diseases, both endemic and recently emerging, are spreading and exacerbated by climate change, transmission with global food trade networks, pathogen spillover, and evolution of new pathogen lineages. In order to tackle these grand challenges, a new set of tools that include disease surveillance and improved detection technologies including pathogen sensors and predictive modeling and data analytics are needed to prevent future outbreaks. Herein, we describe an integrated research agenda that could help mitigate future plant disease pandemics.

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Mycotoxins harm human and livestock health, while damaging economies. Here we reveal the changing threat of Fusarium head blight (FHB) mycotoxins in European wheat, using data from the European Food Safety Agency and agribusiness (BIOMIN, World Mycotoxin Survey) for ten years (2010–2019). We show persistent, high, single- and multi-mycotoxin contamination alongside changing temporal-geographical distributions, indicative of altering FHB disease pressure and pathogen populations, highlighting the potential synergistic negative health consequences and economic cost.

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO₂ will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.