Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 10⁸ m³; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 10⁸ m³ higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario1), ecological development priority(Scenario2), and cropland development priority(Scenario3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low stress (SSP119), medium stress (SSP245), and high stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) Water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) By 2030, the water yield of Scenario1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing ecological development priority by 0.5%; (4) Climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 67% higher water production than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.

(1) Background: This study aims to provide a viable theoretical framework for wetland ecological restoration in the lower reaches of the Yellow River within the city of Kaifeng, China. (2) Methods: Using remote sensing and image interpretation to identify the long-term evolution characteristics of wetlands in the study area and analyzing the impact of runoff, riverway changes, and groundwater flow fields in the lower reaches of the Yellow River on wetland conditions along the Yellow River. (3) Results: With natural wetland as its major wetland type, the study area saw an increase in the total wetland area from 2000–2021. Among others, the total area of artificial wetlands increased by 43%, while that of flooding wetlands in natural wetlands decreased by 37%. Surface water discharge and water level saw a year-by-year drop. Moreover, the significant wandering and oscillations of riverways led to a direct impact on the area and stability of tidal flat wetlands. After 2010, affected by rainfall and exploitation, the groundwater level declined sharply. The degraded areas of artificial wetlands were mainly distributed at the northern embankment of the Yellow River, where the groundwater burial depth decreased significantly. In contrast, at the southern embankment, for the sake of the irrigation canal diverted from the Yellow River, new back river depressions had formed and helped build a more stable ecological environment. Yellow River water levels and discharge directly impacted the area of rivers and flooding wetlands. The decline in groundwater levels led to the degradation of ponds in artificial wetlands. (4) Conclusions: The reduction of groundwater exploitation and an adequate supply of diverted Yellow River water were conducive to the development of wetlands in the back river depressions on the outside of the Yellow River embankment.