Land use/land cover (LULC) has changed dramatically in the peri-urban area (PUA) of greater Cairo (GC) since the Egyptian revolution of 2011. This study analyzes LULC change in the PUA of GC using two Landsat images from 2010 and 2018. The spatial trends of LULC change and visualizations of the gains and losses in LULC were analyzed using TerrSet software. The driving forces of LULC change from 2010–2018 were quantified using the logistic regression model (LRM). The results revealed that the processes of LULC change and urban sprawl have directly impacted the natural resources, particularly agricultural land. In addition, the study showed that the population growth and land value have the highest regression coefficients, 0.660 and 0.292, respectively, and were the most significant driving forces of LULC from 2010–2018. The outcomes of this study are important for decision-makers to adopt appropriate strategies for sustainable land use in this area.

During the last three decades, Delhi has witnessed extensive and rapid urban expansion in all directions, especially in the East South East zone. The total built-up area has risen dramatically, from 195.3 sq. km to 435.1 sq. km, during 1989–2020, which has led to habitat fragmentation, deforestation, and difficulties in running urban utility services effectively in the new extensions. This research aimed to simulate urban expansion in Delhi based on various driving factors using a logistic regression model. The recent urban expansion of Delhi was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The urban expansion was analyzed using concentric rings to show the urban expansion intensity in each direction. Nine driving factors were analyzed to detect the influence of each factor on the urban expansion process. The results revealed that the proximity to urban areas, proximity to main roads, and proximity to medical facilities were the most significant factors in Delhi during 1989–2020, where they had the highest regression coefficients: −0.884, −0.475, and −0.377, respectively. In addition, the predicted pattern of urban expansion was chaotic, scattered, and dense on the peripheries. This pattern of urban expansion might lead to further losses of natural resources. The relative operating characteristic method was utilized to assess the accuracy of the simulation, and the resulting value of 0.96 proved the validity of the simulation. The results of this research will aid local authorities in recognizing the patterns of future expansion, thus facilitating the implementation of effective policies to achieve sustainable urban development in Delhi.

The peri-urban area (PUA) of the Greater Cairo Region (GCR) in Egypt has witnessed a rapid urban expansion during the last few years. This urban expansion has led to the loss of wide, areas of agriculture lands and the annexation of many peripheral villages into the boundary of the GCR. This study analyzed the driving factors causing the urban expansion in the GCR during the period 2007–2017 using the logistic regression model (LRM). Eight independent variables were applied in this model: distance to the nearest urban center, distance to the nearest center of regional services, distance to water streams, distance to the main agglomeration, distance to industrial areas, distance to nearest road, number of urban cells within a 3 × 3 cell window and population density. The analysis was conducted using LOGISTICREG module in Terrset software. This research showed that the population density and distance to the nearest road have the highest regression coefficients, 0.540 and 0.114, respectively, and were the most significant driving factors of urban expansion during the last 10 years (2007–2017). Moreover, based on the results of the LRM, a probability map of urban expansion in the PUA was created, which shows that most urban expansion would be around the existing urban areas and near roads. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) value of 0.93 indicates that the probability map of urban expansion is valid.

Cities in the Global South are experiencing profound demographic shifts, rapid economic growth, and unchecked urban sprawl, resulting in significant transformations in peri-urban landscapes. This paper focuses on assessing the impacts of chaotic urban expansion in the peri-urban areas (PUAs) of Greater Cairo (GC), serving as a notable case study in the Global South. By analyzing satellite imagery from 2001, 2011, and 2021, this study examines changes in land use/cover (LUC) within GC’s PUAs. Employing five landscape metrics—Landscape Expansion Index (LEI), Percentage of Landscape (PLAND), Fractal Dimension Index (FDI), Mean Patch Size (MPS), and Largest Patch index (LPI)—the research elucidates the adverse effects of unplanned urban expansion in GC’s PUAs. The analysis reveals a substantial loss of over 51 thousand hectares of arable land, raising concerns about food security in the region. Notably, the LEI identifies edge expansion as the predominant urban expansion pattern, while PLAND, FDI, and LPI metrics underscore landscape fragmentation within the peri-urban landscape. These findings have significant implications for authorities and researchers engaged in sustainable development efforts in PUAs. This study lays a crucial foundation for the formulation of successful management strategies to mitigate the adverse consequences of unplanned urban expansion in the PUAs of GC and similar regions worldwide.