The natural history for patients with de novo donor‐specific antibodies (dnDSA) and the risk factors for its development have not been well defined. Furthermore, clinical and histologic correlation with serologic data is limited. We studied 315 consecutive renal transplants without pretransplant DSA, with a mean follow‐up of 6.2 ± 2.9 years. Protocol (n = 215) and for cause (n = 163) biopsies were analyzed. Solid phase assays were used to screen for dnDSA posttransplant. A total of 47 out of 315 (15%) patients developed dnDSA at a mean of 4.6 ± 3.0 years posttransplant. Independent predictors of dnDSA were HLA‐DRβ1 MM > 0 (OR 5.66, p < 0.006); and nonadherence (OR 8.75, p < 0.001); with a strong trend toward clinical rejection episodes preceding dnDSA (OR 1.57 per rejection episode, p = 0.061). The median 10‐year graft survival for those with dnDSA was lower than the No dnDSA group (57% vs. 96%, p < 0.0001). Pathology consistent with antibody‐mediated injury can occur and progress in patients with dnDSA in the absence of graft dysfunction and furthermore, nonadherence and cellular rejection contribute to dnDSA development and progression to graft loss.

De novo donor‐specific antibody (dnDSA) develops in 15–25% of renal transplant recipients within 5 years of transplantation and is associated with 40% lower graft survival at 10 years. HLA epitope matching is a novel strategy that may minimize dnDSA development. HLAMatchmaker software was used to characterize epitope mismatches at 395 potential HLA‐DR/DQ/DP conformational epitopes for 286 donor–recipient pairs. Epitope specificities were assigned using single antigen HLA bead analysis and correlated with known monoclonal alloantibody epitope targets. Locus‐specific epitope mismatches were more numerous in patients who developed HLA‐DR dnDSA alone (21.4 vs. 13.2, p < 0.02) or HLA‐DQ dnDSA alone (27.5 vs. 17.3, p < 0.001). An optimal threshold for epitope mismatches (10 for HLA‐DR, 17 for HLA‐DQ) was defined that was associated with minimal development of Class II dnDSA. Applying these thresholds, zero and 2.7% of patients developed dnDSA against HLA‐DR and HLA‐DQ, respectively, after a median of 6.9 years. Epitope specificity analysis revealed that 3 HLA‐DR and 3 HLA‐DQ epitopes were independent multivariate predictors of Class II dnDSA. HLA‐DR and DQ epitope matching outperforms traditional low‐resolution antigen‐based matching and has the potential to minimize the risk of de novo Class II DSA development, thereby improving long‐term graft outcome.

Understanding rates and determinants of clinical pathologic progression for recipients with de novo donor‐specific antibody (dnDSA), especially subclinical dnDSA, may identify surrogate endpoints and inform clinical trial design. A consecutive cohort of 508 renal transplant recipients (n = 64 with dnDSA) was studied. Recipients (n = 388) without dnDSA or dysfunction had an eGFR decline of −0.65 mL/min/1.73 m²/year. In recipients with dnDSA, the rate eGFR decline was significantly increased prior to dnDSA onset (−2.89 vs. −0.65 mL/min/1.73 m²/year, p < 0.0001) and accelerated post‐dnDSA (−3.63 vs. −2.89 mL/min/1.73 m²/year, p < 0.0001), suggesting that dnDSA is both a marker and contributor to ongoing alloimmunity. Time to 50% post‐dnDSA graft loss was longer in recipients with subclinical versus a clinical dnDSA phenotype (8.3 vs. 3.3 years, p < 0.0001). Analysis of 1091 allograft biopsies found that dnDSA and time independently predicted chronic glomerulopathy (cg), but not interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA). Early T cell–mediated rejection, nonadherence, and time were multivariate predictors of IFTA. Independent risk factors for post‐dnDSA graft survival available prior to, or at the time of, dnDSA detection were delayed graft function, nonadherence, dnDSA mean fluorescence intensity sum score, tubulitis, and cg. Ultimately, dnDSA is part of a continuum of mixed alloimmune‐mediated injury, which requires solutions targeting T and B cells.

Objective To examine risk of malignancy and death in patients with kidney transplant who receive the immunosuppressive drug sirolimus. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data. Data sources Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to March 2013. Eligibility Randomized controlled trials comparing immunosuppressive regimens with and without sirolimus in recipients of kidney or combined pancreatic and renal transplant for which the author was willing to provide individual patient level data. Two reviewers independently screened titles/abstracts and full text reports of potentially eligible trials to identify studies for inclusion. All eligible trials reported data on malignancy or survival. Results The search yielded 2365 unique citations. Patient level data were available from 5876 patients from 21 randomized trials. Sirolimus was associated with a 40% reduction in the risk of malignancy (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.93) and a 56% reduction in the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (0.44, 0.30 to 0.63) compared with controls. The most pronounced effect was seen in patients who converted to sirolimus from an established immunosuppressive regimen, resulting in a reduction in risk of malignancy (0.34, 0.28 to 0.41), non-melanoma skin cancer (0.32, 0.24 to 0.42), and other cancers (0.52, 0.38 to 0.69). Sirolimus was associated with an increased risk of death (1.43, 1.21 to 1.71) compared with controls. Conclusions Sirolimus was associated with a reduction in the risk of malignancy and non-melanoma skin cancer in transplant recipients. The benefit was most pronounced in patients who converted from an established immunosuppressive regimen to sirolimus. Given the risk of mortality, however, the use of this drug does not seem warranted for most patients with kidney transplant. Further research is needed to determine if different populations, such as those at high risk of cancer, might benefit from sirolimus.

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) associates with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Hypertension leads to LVH in adults, but its role in the pathogenesis of LVH in children is not as well established. To examine left ventricular mass and evaluate factors associated with LVH in children with stages 2 through 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD), we analyzed cross-sectional data from children who had baseline echocardiography (n = 366) and underwent ambulatory BP monitoring (n = 226) as a part of the observational Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) cohort study. At baseline, 17% of children had LVH (11% eccentric and 6% concentric) and 9% had concentric remodeling of the left ventricle. On the basis of a combination of ambulatory and casual BP assessment (n = 198), 38% of children had masked hypertension (normal casual but elevated ambulatory BP) and 18% had confirmed hypertension (both elevated casual and ambulatory BP). There was no significant association between LVH and kidney function. LVH was more common in children with either confirmed (34%) or masked (20%) hypertension compared with children with normal casual and ambulatory BP (8%). In multivariable analysis, masked (odds ratio 4.1) and confirmed (odds ratio 4.3) hypertension were the strongest independent predictors of LVH. In conclusion, casual BP measurements alone are insufficient to predict the presence of LVH in children with CKD. The high prevalence of masked hypertension and its association with LVH supports early echocardiography and ambulatory BP monitoring to evaluate cardiovascular risk in children with CKD.

Despite more than two decades of use, the optimal maintenance dose of tacrolimus for kidney transplant recipients is unknown. We hypothesized that HLA class II de novo donor-specific antibody (dnDSA) development correlates with tacrolimus trough levels and the recipient’s individualized alloimmune risk determined by HLA-DR/DQ epitope mismatch. A cohort of 596 renal transplant recipients with 50,011 serial tacrolimus trough levels had HLA-DR/DQ eplet mismatch determined using HLAMatchmaker software. We analyzed the frequency of tacrolimus trough levels below a series of thresholds <6 ng/ml and the mean tacrolimus levels before dnDSA development in the context of HLA-DR/DQ eplet mismatch. HLA-DR/DQ eplet mismatch was a significant multivariate predictor of dnDSA development. Recipients treated with a cyclosporin regimen had a 2.7-fold higher incidence of dnDSA development than recipients on a tacrolimus regimen. Recipients treated with tacrolimus who developed HLA-DR/DQ dnDSA had a higher proportion of tacrolimus trough levels 6 months before dnDSA development in the same patients. Recipients with a high-risk HLA eplet mismatch score were less likely to tolerate low tacrolimus levels without developing dnDSA. We conclude that HLA-DR/DQ eplet mismatch and tacrolimus trough levels are independent predictors of dnDSA development. Recipients with high HLA alloimmune risk should not target tacrolimus levels <5 ng/ml unless essential, and monitoring for dnDSA may be advisable in this setting.