This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks in the short term, whereas the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) revealed a fluctuating currency over time. That is, the South African rand (ZAR) initially appreciated against the US dollar (USD) in response to oil price shocks (periods 1:7), followed by a depreciation in periods 8:12. Imposing short-run restrictions on the SVAR model revealed that the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) reacted to oil price shocks in a manner similar to the VAR model, with ZAR appreciating during the initial periods (1:7) and subsequently depreciating in the later periods (8:12). Consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks, causing consumer prices to increase in the short run, which is consistent with the VAR findings. However, imposing long-run restrictions on our SVAR model yielded results that contrasted with those obtained under short-run restrictions and the standard VAR model. That is, oil price shocks had long-lasting effects on the foreign exchange rate, resulting in the depreciation of ZAR relative to USD over time. Additionally, oil price shocks reduced consumer prices, resulting in a deflationary effect in the long run. This study concluded that South Africa’s position as a net oil importer with a floating exchange rate renders the country vulnerable to short-term external shocks. Nonetheless, in the long term, the results indicated that the economy tends to adapt to oil price shocks over time.

This study examined South Africa’s economic growth rate from 1980 to 2022 through an econometric analysis of fiscal and monetary policies. The study sought to investigate the relationships between the economy’s growth rate and various fiscal and monetary policy variables, taking into account different economic approaches such as Keynesian, monetarist, and Wagner’s perspectives. The methodology used consisted of data preparation, multiple unit root tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis, diagnostic tests, and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The empirical analysis found a long-term cointegration among the economic growth rate, government debt, expenditure, and revenue in fiscal policy, though government debt and expenditure were not statistically significant. Contrary to economic theory, increased government revenue had a negative correlation with economic growth. There was no long-term relationship found between the economic growth rate and monetary policy variables such as the official exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rates, and M3 money supply. Pairwise Granger causality tests revealed a one-way relationship between government spending and economic growth, providing support to the Keynesian approach to fiscal policy. This study also discovered evidence that economic growth Granger-causes inflation, implying that economic growth may have predictive power for inflation, consistent with the demand-pull inflation hypothesis. However, no direct predictive relationships were found between the selected monetary policy variables and economic growth, supporting the long-run theory of monetary neutrality. This study suggests evaluating spending, managing inflation, implementing reforms, closing infrastructure gaps, encouraging investment, and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

The transition of South Africa from coal-dependent energy systems to renewable energy alternatives presents economic and environmental trade-off complexities that require empirical investigation. This study employed threshold-switching dynamic models, NARDL analysis, and threshold Granger causality tests to investigate nonlinear relationships between renewable energy generation, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in South Africa from 1980 to 2023. The threshold-switching dynamic models revealed critical structural breakpoints: a 56.4% renewable energy threshold for carbon dioxide emissions reduction, a 397.9% trade openness threshold for economic growth optimisation, and a 385.32% trade openness threshold for coal consumption transitions. The NARDL bounds test confirmed asymmetric effects in the carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy relationship. The threshold Granger causality test established significant unidirectional causality from renewable energy to carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions, and bidirectional causality between coal consumption and trade openness. However, renewable energy demonstrated no significant causal relationship with economic growth, contradicting traditional growth-led energy hypotheses. This study concluded that South Africa’s energy transition demonstrates distinct regime-dependent characteristics, with renewable energy deployment requiring critical mass thresholds to generate meaningful environmental benefits. The study recommended that optimal trade integration and renewable energy thresholds could fundamentally transform the economy’s carbon intensity while maintaining sustainable growth patterns.

This study investigates whether government spending stimulates economic growth by applying the Keynesian theoretical framework across varying economic conditions. The analysis uses annual data from 1980 to 2024 to explore how fiscal dynamics change over time and across regimes. It employs the NARDL model to evaluate asymmetric effects, the STAR model to capture regime dependence, and threshold Granger causality tests to assess causal relationships across spending regimes. These approaches enable a detailed examination of asymmetry, structural breaks, and nonlinear adjustment in the spending–growth relationship. The results show that Keynesian effects remain present across economic regimes but operate only in the short run without generating sustained long-term output gains. The absence of long-run cointegration is consistent with the presence of short-run dynamic multipliers, because these multipliers reflect temporary adjustments rather than permanent effects. The findings indicate that increases and decreases in government spending have proportionate effects on output, confirming a symmetrical Keynesian response. Government debt demonstrates a consistently negative and statistically robust influence on short-run growth. Corruption, measured using an index capturing governance quality, heightens policy ineffectiveness during periods of high public expenditure. Threshold causality tests reveal that government spending Granger causes economic growth in both low and high spending regimes, confirming the short-run stimulative potential of fiscal policy. Consequently, the study supports countercyclical fiscal interventions while emphasising the importance of prudent debt management and governance reforms to reduce fiscal risks.

South Africa remains one of the world’s most coal-dependent electricity systems, with coal accounting for 81.57% of generation in 2023. Despite policy interventions to diversify the energy mix, structural change is slow to emerge. This study provides the first integrated, empirically calibrated forecast of South Africa’s coal-to-clean-energy transition using a unified modelling architecture that combines structural break analysis, Bayesian estimation, and an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic volatility (10,000 stochastic pathways). The findings confirm a permanent structural break in 2011 that coincided with the implementation of REIPPPP, following which coal began a statistically significant and sustained decline of approximately 0.7–0.75% points per year. The simulation produced a full probability distribution for the transition year (2053) when coal share falls below 50%. This demonstrated that long-term uncertainty rises faster than linearly and that, under current conditions, deep decarbonisation milestones are unattainable before mid-century. Policy scenario experiments also demonstrated that accelerating the annual decline rate necessitates coordinated, synergistic policy portfolios rather than isolated interventions. These findings provide a transparent, uncertainty-explicit forecast of South Africa’s transition trajectory, as well as a decision-relevant evidence base for planning, regulation, and equitable transition implementation.

This study examines the nature and stability of the relationship between government spending and gross national income in South Africa, with a focus on whether fiscal dynamics are consistent with Wagner’s Law. Using annual data from 1990 to 2024, the study employs nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and time-varying parameter (TVP) models to capture both asymmetric and changing fiscal dynamics. The findings show that positive income shocks have a modest, marginally significant effect on government spending, while negative shocks have no significant impact. This asymmetry suggests spending rigidity rather than a structured Wagnerian relationship. The bounds test fails to establish cointegration, and short-run Granger causality tests reveal no predictive influence in either direction. Multiple structural breaks (concentrated around 1994, 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018) show that South Africa’s fiscal behaviour evolves through distinct regimes rather than following a consistent path. These findings imply that the income–spending relationship is unstable and regime-dependent, with limited and conditional evidence consistent with Wagner’s Law and no evidence of a systematic or stable Wagnerian relationship. The study concludes that South Africa’s fiscal planning should use medium-term frameworks that account for regime-dependent behaviour and structural instability rather than relying on stable long-run fiscal multipliers.