Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either...

Non-invasive imaging is routinely used to estimate left ventricular (LV) filling pressure (LVFP) in heart failure (HF). Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is emerging as an important imaging tool for sub-phenotyping HF. However, currently, LVFP cannot be estimated from CMR. This study sought to investigate (i) if CMR can estimate LVFP in patients with suspected HF and (ii) if CMR-modelled LVFP has prognostic power. Suspected HF patients underwent right heart catheterization (RHC), CMR and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) (validation cohort only) within 24 h of each other. Right heart catheterization measured pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) was used as a reference for LVFP. At follow-up, death was considered as the primary endpoint. We enrolled 835 patients (mean age: 65 ± 13 years, 40% male). In the derivation cohort (n = 708, 85%), two CMR metrics were associated with RHC PCWP:LV mass and left atrial volume. When applied to the validation cohort (n = 127, 15%), the correlation coefficient between RHC PCWP and CMR-modelled PCWP was 0.55 (95% confidence interval: 0.41–0.66, P < 0.0001). Cardiovascular magnetic resonance-modelled PCWP was superior to TTE in classifying patients as normal or raised filling pressures (76 vs. 25%). Cardiovascular magnetic resonance-modelled PCWP was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.77, P < 0.001). At Kaplan–Meier analysis, CMR-modelled PCWP was comparable to RHC PCWP (≥15 mmHg) to predict survival at 7-year follow-up (35 vs. 37%, χ² = 0.41, P = 0.52). A physiological CMR model can estimate LVFP in patients with suspected HF. In addition, CMR-modelled LVFP has a prognostic role. Patients presenting with breathlessness underwent TTE, CMR, and RHC. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance-modelled PCWP and TTE-estimated PCWP were both compared with invasively measured PCWP. The diagnostic accuracy of our CMR model was 71% compared with 25% for TTE. In cases where TTE was non-diagnostic (indeterminate or incorrect diagnosis), CMR correctly reclassified the correct diagnosis in 71%. Furthermore, CMR-derived PCWP was an independent predictor of survival. CMR, cardiac magnetic resonance; HF, heart failure; PCWP, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure; SOB, shortness of breath; TTE, transthoracic echocardiography; RHC, right heart catheterization.

Right ventricular (RV) function is critical to prognosis in all forms of pulmonary hypertension. Here we perform molecular phenotyping of RV remodeling by transcriptome analysis of RV tissue obtained from 40 individuals, and two animal models of RV dysfunction of both sexes. Our unsupervised clustering analysis identified ‘early’ and ‘late’ subgroups within compensated and decompensated states, characterized by the expression of distinct signaling pathways, while fatty acid metabolism and estrogen response appeared to underlie sex-specific differences in RV adaptation. The circulating levels of several extracellular matrix proteins deregulated in decompensated RV subgroups were assessed in two independent cohorts of individuals with pulmonary arterial hypertension, revealing that NID1, C1QTNF1 and CRTAC1 predicted the development of a maladaptive RV state, as defined by magnetic resonance imaging parameters, and were associated with worse clinical outcomes. Our study provides a resource for subphenotyping RV states, identifying state-specific biomarkers, and potential therapeutic targets for RV dysfunction.

Background: Segmentation of cardiac structures is an important step in evaluation of the heart on imaging. There has been growing interest in how artificial intelligence (AI) methods—particularly deep learning (DL)—can be used to automate this process. Existing AI approaches to cardiac segmentation have mostly focused on cardiac MRI. This systematic review aimed to appraise the performance and quality of supervised DL tools for the segmentation of cardiac structures on CT.Methods: Embase and Medline databases were searched to identify related studies from January 1, 2013 to December 4, 2023. Original research studies published in peer-reviewed journals after January 1, 2013 were eligible for inclusion if they presented supervised DL-based tools for the segmentation of cardiac structures and non-coronary great vessels on CT. The data extracted from eligible studies included information about cardiac structure(s) being segmented, study location, DL architectures and reported performance metrics such as the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Checklist for Artificial Intelligence in Medical Imaging (CLAIM).Results: 18 studies published after 2020 were included. The DSC scores median achieved for the most commonly segmented structures were left atrium (0.88, IQR 0.83–0.91), left ventricle (0.91, IQR 0.89–0.94), left ventricle myocardium (0.83, IQR 0.82–0.92), right atrium (0.88, IQR 0.83–0.90), right ventricle (0.91, IQR 0.85–0.92), and pulmonary artery (0.92, IQR 0.87–0.93). Compliance of studies with CLAIM was variable. In particular, only 58% of studies showed compliance with dataset description criteria and most of the studies did not test or validate their models on external data (81%).Conclusion: Supervised DL has been applied to the segmentation of various cardiac structures on CT. Most showed similar performance as measured by DSC values. Existing studies have been limited by the size and nature of the training datasets, inconsistent descriptions of ground truth annotations and lack of testing in external data or clinical settings.Systematic Review Registration: [www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/], PROSPERO [CRD42023431113].