In renewable energy generation, uncertainties mainly refer to power output fluctuations caused by the intermittency, variability, and forecasting errors of wind and photovoltaic power. These uncertainties have adverse effects on the secure operation of the power systems. Probabilistic load supply capability (LSC) serves as an effective perspective for evaluating power system security under uncertainties. Therefore, this paper studies the influence of renewable energy generation on probabilistic LSC to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on the secure operation of the power systems. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is introduced for the first time into probabilistic LSC evaluation. It can quantify the impact of renewable energy generation on the system’s LSC and rank the importance of renewable energy power stations based on GSA indices. GSA necessitates multiple rounds of probabilistic LSC evaluation, which is computationally intensive. To address it, this paper introduces a novel probabilistic repeated power flow (PRPF) algorithm, which employs a basis-adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion (BASPCE) model as a surrogate model for the original repeated power flow model, thereby accelerating the probabilistic LSC evaluation. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed methods is verified through case studies on the IEEE 39-bus system. This study provides a practical approach for analyzing the impact of renewable generation uncertainties on power system security, contributing to more informed planning and operational decisions.

Considering the limited availability of meteorological data in practice, this paper investigates the short-term photovoltaic output prediction problem based on data decomposition and error correction to further improve prediction accuracy. Firstly, according to the analysis of the variation characteristics of photovoltaic output data, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method is used to decompose the original data into three components: seasonal term, trend term, and residual term. Considering that the variation patterns of different components are different, based on the division of the dataset, temporal convolutional network (TCN)-based prediction models for each component are constructed separately, and the prediction results are superimposed to obtain the predicted value of the photovoltaic output. Secondly, an error dataset is constructed based on the prediction errors of the training set and validation set, and a TCN error prediction model is established. The error prediction value is used as compensation to correct the photovoltaic output prediction value, and the final photovoltaic output prediction value is obtained. Finally, based on the measured photovoltaic output data of a certain region in China, the effectiveness and advancement of the proposed method are demonstrated through the ablation and comparative experiments.