The complex terrain of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) makes low-level wind shear (LLWS) detection challenging. Using May–September 2023 high-resolution Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) observations, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of LLWS and proposed an optimized detection algorithm. A key novelty of this work lies in the development of a hybrid physical–statistical detection scheme that combines horizontal divergence with logistic regression to dynamically modulate the shear field. This approach effectively reduces noise-induced false alarms in complex plateau terrain. The results show that LLWS occurred mainly near the surface at night in June, while in September it appeared more frequently during daytime throughout the boundary layer. Horizontally, the dominant directions of LLWS shifted seasonally from northwest and west in June to south and east in September. The proposed optimization method effectively suppressed false alarms, reducing moderate and strong LLWS frequencies by 30–40%. In June, optimization significantly reduced spurious detections of LLWS in the northeast and southwest. The frequency of LLWS in the northeast direction was reduced by up to 0.03. In September, scattered shear was removed and strong shear became more organized in the southeast, while southwest shear frequency decreased by up to 0.04, confirming LLWS patterns and method effectiveness.

Accurate precipitation forecasting on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) remains a significant challenge due to complex terrain and nonlinear atmospheric dynamics. This study evaluates an XGBoost-SHAP framework for 24 h precipitation forecasting at Maqu Station, leveraging multi-source observations from 2020 to 2022. Vertical profile analyses via microwave radiometer (MWR) indicate that moisture is predominantly confined to altitudes below 4 km (AGL), with Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) and Liquid Water Path (LWP) typically varying between 0–15 mm and 0–2.5 mm, respectively. The optimized XGBoost model achieves an annual R² of 0.872 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.609 mm, showing improved statistical consistency compared with standard Random Forest baselines. While the framework maintains robust performance for winter stratiform precipitation (RMSE = 0.32 mm), predictive variance increases during summer convective periods (RMSE = 3.26 mm). SHAP diagnostic analysis identifies Dew Point Temperature (DPT) as a consistent year-round predictor. Feature sensitivity analysis further reveals shifting seasonal driving mechanisms: spring precipitation appears sensitive to mid-tropospheric geopotential height, whereas summer forecasts are more strongly modulated by 500 hPa specific humidity and lower-level water vapor density. Overall, the XGBoost-SHAP framework serves as a transparent and physically plausible diagnostic tool for examining seasonal moisture–dynamic coupling. While these site-specific results are encouraging, they represent a localized empirical baseline; further cross-site validation is required to assess regional generalizability.