How will the 10 billion people expected to be living on Earth by 2050 obtain sufficient and nutritious food? This is one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. Global food systems must supply enough calories and protein for a growing human population and provide important micronutrients such as iron, zinc, omega-3 fatty acids and vitamins. Deficiencies of micronutrients — so called because the body needs them only in tiny amounts — can increase the risks of perinatal and maternal mortality, growth retardation, child mortality, cognitive deficits and reduced immune function1. The associated burdens of disease are large. Forty-five per cent of mortality in children under five is attributable to undernutrition; nutritional deficiencies are responsible for 50% of years lived with disability in children aged four and under1. Fish are crucial sources of micronutrients, often in highly bioavailable forms. And fish populations are declining. Most previous analyses have considered only how people will be affected by the loss of protein derived from fish. We calculate that this is the tip of the iceberg. Combining data on dietary nutrition, and fish catch, we predict that more than 10% of the global population could face micronutrient and fatty-acid deficiencies driven by fish declines over the coming decades, especially in the developing nations at the Equator (see 'Troubled Waters'). This new view underlines the need for nutrition-sensitive fisheries policies. Presently, 17% of the global population is zinc deficient, with some subpopulations being particularly at risk1. Nearly one-fifth of pregnant women worldwide have iron-deficiency anaemia and one-third are vitamin-A deficient1. We estimate that 845 million people (11% of the current global population) are poised to become deficient in one of these three micronutrients if current trajectories in fish-catch declines continue. Considering nutrients found only in foods derived from animals, such as vitamin B12, and DHA omega-3 fatty acids (almost exclusively derived from meat consumption, see Supplementary Information), we calculate that 1.39 billion people worldwide (19% of the global population) are vulnerable to deficiencies because fish make up more than 20% of their intake of these foods by weight. To make this sobering new assessment, we coupled two databases from 2010, the most recent year for which both had data. The new Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) database combines food balance sheets (total quantity of food production and imports minus livestock feed, post-harvest losses, and exports) and production or trade data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) with estimates of food group intake by age and sex2. It estimates per capita edible supplies for 225 foods, paired with regional food composition tables to infer nutrient supplies by country. GENuS is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Winslow Foundation. We categorized populations as nutritionally vulnerable if their nutrient supply was less than double the estimated average requirement (EAR), and if they derived from fish more than 10% of their vitamin A or zinc, or more than 5% of their iron. We chose to double the EAR for two reasons. First, even in countries where the national average intake is greater than the EAR, large variability of intake may still mean that a significant part of the population is eating less well. If we had used the EAR as our threshold, more than 50% of a nation's population would need to be deemed at risk of nutritional deficiency, which we feel is an irresponsibly high proportion required for raising an alarm. Second, our GENuS-derived estimates measure food supply rather than food intake, and are generally regarded as overestimates of true intake2. The Sea Around Us database, released in 2016, provides a portrait of marine fisheries catch between 1950 and 2010 for every coastal nation3. Over 15 years, a team of researchers in every coastal country collated information from government documents, academic research and maritime records to reconstruct the numbers of fish caught. This database measures the contribution of subsistence, artisanal and industrial marine fisheries to food supply at the country level more accurately than previous estimates3. This database was funded by the Pew Charitable Trust and the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation and is maintained by staff at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. These global marine catch data are alarming. Conservative estimates by the FAO characterize global fisheries as stable, but acknowledge that global catch has declined by 0.38 million tonnes per year since 1996 (ref. 4). The Sea Around Us estimates summarized earlier this year3 paint a much bleaker picture, in which fish catch peaked in 1996 and has been falling by 1.22 million tonnes (roughly 1%) per year since — three times faster than the decline reported by FAO. The degradation of marine habitat by destructive fishing practices, industrial pollution, climate change and coastal development for urbanization and aquaculture is likely to further degrade ocean ecosystems and reduce fisheries yields. Such patterns call into question the ability of wild fisheries to support future demand for fish. The health impacts of fishery declines will hit some places harder than others. A perfect storm is brewing in the low-latitude developing nations. This is where human nutrition is most dependent on wild fish, and where fisheries are most at risk from illegal fishing, weak governance, poor knowledge of stock status, population pressures and climate change. Sharp declines in the health of fisheries were first described in the twentieth century in high-latitude regions where industrial fishing began, such as the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Developed countries have compensated with intensive agricultural production, by importing goods (including fish),...

Seafood sector can contribute to the global food supply in an important way, and provide an important source of animal protein. Based on observed regional trends in seafood production and consumption and using a global, partial-equilibrium, multi-market model, this study investigates what the global seafood market may look like in 2030. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture entirely responsible for the increase. The fastest aquaculture growth is expected for tilapia and shrimp, while the largest expansion is expected in India, Latin America and Caribbean and Southeast Asia. Fast-growing seafood demand in China and elsewhere represents a critical opportunity for global fisheries and aquaculture to improve their management and achieve sustainable seafood economy.

This paper discusses fish consumption and preference patterns for fish species by income groups, and by urban/rural divide in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The analysis is based on primary data collected by the WorldFish Center and its partner institutes by means of a survey of 5,931 households in the selected countries. The FAO database and other published materials were also used to analyze trends in fish consumption. Freshwater fish species constitute a major share in total per capita fish consumption in most of these countries. Pelagic and demersal marine fish are the main contributor to per capita total fish consumption in the countries with longer coastal boundaries (such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand), and in the coastal regions within each country. Results suggest that fish contributes between 15% and 53% of the total animal protein intake in these countries. Fish consumption varies widely with economic position of the households, in terms of both per capita consumption and type of fish species. Per capita fish consumption increases with increase in income. The share of fish protein in total animal protein expenditure is higher for lower income groups, demonstrating their dependence on fish as a source of animal protein. Poor people consume mostly low-price fish and rich people spend a significant portion of their fish budget on expensive fish. Per capita fish consumption is substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas.

The global seafood system includes three interconnected sectors: commercial capture (or wild-caught) fisheries, recreational and subsistence fisheries, and aquaculture (or farmed seafood). ...