Road traffic accidents are one of the world’s most serious problems, as they result in numerous fatalities and injuries, as well as economic losses each year. Assessing the factors that contribute to the severity of road traffic injuries has proven to be insightful. The findings may contribute to a better understanding of and potential mitigation of the risk of serious injuries associated with crashes. While ensemble learning approaches are capable of establishing complex and non-linear relationships between input risk variables and outcomes for the purpose of injury severity prediction and classification, most of them share a critical limitation: their “black-box” nature. To develop interpretable predictive models for road traffic injury severity, this paper proposes four boosting-based ensemble learning models, namely a novel Natural Gradient Boosting, Adaptive Gradient Boosting, Categorical Gradient Boosting, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and uses a recently developed SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to rank the risk variables and explain the optimal model. Among four models, LightGBM achieved the highest classification accuracy (73.63%), precision (72.61%), and recall (70.09%), F1-scores (70.81%), and AUC (0.71) when tested on 2015–2019 Pakistan’s National Highway N-5 (Peshawar to Rahim Yar Khan Section) accident data. By incorporating the SHapley Additive exPlanations approach, we were able to interpret the model’s estimation results from both global and local perspectives. Following interpretation, it was determined that the Month_of_Year, Cause_of_Accident, Driver_Age and Collision_Type all played a significant role in the estimation process. According to the analysis, young drivers and pedestrians struck by a trailer have a higher risk of suffering fatal injuries. The combination of trailers and passenger vehicles, as well as driver at-fault, hitting pedestrians and rear-end collisions, significantly increases the risk of fatal injuries. This study suggests that combining LightGBM and SHAP has the potential to develop an interpretable model for predicting road traffic injury severity.

To undertake a reliable analysis of injury severity in road traffic accidents, a complete understanding of important attributes is essential. As a result of the shift from traditional statistical parametric procedures to computer-aided methods, machine learning approaches have become an important aspect in predicting the severity of road traffic injuries. The paper presents a hybrid feature selection-based machine learning classification approach for detecting significant attributes and predicting injury severity in single and multiple-vehicle accidents. To begin, we employed a Random Forests (RF) classifier in conjunction with an intrinsic wrapper-based feature selection approach called the Boruta Algorithm (BA) to find the relevant important attributes that determine injury severity. The influential attributes were then fed into a set of four classifiers to accurately predict injury severity (Naive Bayes (NB), K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN), Binary Logistic Regression (BLR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)). According to BA’s experimental investigation, the vehicle type was the most influential factor, followed by the month of the year, the driver’s age, and the alignment of the road segment. The driver’s gender, the presence of a median, and the presence of a shoulder were all found to be unimportant. According to classifier performance measures, XGBoost surpasses the other classifiers in terms of prediction performance. Using the specified attributes, the accuracy, Cohen’s Kappa, F1-Measure, and AUC-ROC values of the XGBoost were 82.10%, 0.607, 0.776, and 0.880 for single vehicle accidents and 79.52%, 0.569, 0.752, and 0.86 for multiple-vehicle accidents, respectively.

Road traffic accidents are among the top ten major causes of fatalities in the world, taking millions of lives annually. Machine-learning ensemble classifiers have been frequently used for the prediction of traffic injury severity. However, their inability to comprehend complex models due to their “black box” nature may lead to unrealistic traffic safety judgments. First, in this research, we propose three state-of-the-art Dynamic Ensemble Learning (DES) algorithms including Meta-Learning for Dynamic Ensemble Selection (META-DES), K-Nearest Oracle Elimination (KNORAE), and Dynamic Ensemble Selection Performance (DES-P), with Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), and Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) as the base learners. The DES algorithm automatically chooses the subset of classifiers most likely to perform well for each new test instance to be classified when generating a prediction, making it more efficient and flexible. The META-DES model using RF as the base learner outperforms other models with accuracy (75%), recall (69%), precision (71%), and F1-score (72%). Afterwards, the risk factors are analyzed with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The driver’s age, month of the year, day of the week, and vehicle type influence SHAP estimation the most. Young drivers are at a heightened risk of fatal accidents. Weekends and summer months see the most fatal injuries. The proposed novel META-DES-RF algorithm with SHAP for predicting injury severity may be of interest to traffic safety researchers.

Machine learning algorithms are applied to predict intense wind shear from the Doppler LiDAR data located at the Hong Kong International Airport. Forecasting intense wind shear in the vicinity of airport runways is vital in order to make intelligent management and timely flight operation decisions. To predict the time series of intense wind shear, Bayesian optimized machine learning models such as adaptive boosting, light gradient boosting machine, categorical boosting, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, and natural gradient boosting are developed in this study. The time-series prediction describes a model that predicts future values based on past values. Based on the testing set, the Bayesian optimized-Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed the other models in terms of mean absolute error (1.764), mean squared error (5.611), root mean squared error (2.368), and R-Square (0.859). Afterwards, the XGBoost model is interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The XGBoost-based importance and SHAP method reveal that the month of the year and the encounter location of the most intense wind shear were the most influential features. August is more likely to have a high number of intense wind-shear events. The majority of the intense wind-shear events occurred on the runway and within one nautical mile of the departure end of the runway.

This study conducts a comprehensive spatial analysis of road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Najran, a city emblematic of rapid urbanization in Saudi Arabia, which is facing significant public safety challenges due to an increase in vehicular traffic. By means of a dataset from 2022, we explore the spatial distribution of RTAs across the city’s districts by employing advanced clustering algorithms, including Density-based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) and Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC), as well as GIS-based density analysis, proximity analysis, and spatial interpolation, to unveil accident hotspots and disparities in emergency service coverage. Our findings reveal that (1) the HAC model, based on the Silhouette and Calinski-Harabasz Scores, performs better in identifying accident hotspots; (2) significant concentrations of accidents are observed along major highways and arterial roads, pinpointing critical hotspots within the city’s fabric; (3) proximity analysis indicates gaps in the coverage of ambulance services and public hospitals relative to high-incident areas; (4) through spatial interpolation, detailed visualizations of RTA distributions are provided, revealing diverse accident patterns across Najran. The study highlights the critical role of spatial analysis in identifying high-risk areas and provides valuable insights for transport planners and public safety officials, supporting the development of targeted strategies to improve road safety and enhance emergency service responses.