We employed simulations by forest ecosystem (SIMA) and mechanistic wind damage (HWIND) models in upland boreal forests throughout Finland to study regional risks of wind damage under changing management preferences and climates (current and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) over 2010–2099. We used a critical wind speed for the uprooting of trees as a measure of vulnerability, which together with the probability of such wind speed defined a level of risk. Based on that, we also predicted the stem volume of growing stock at risk and the amount of damage. In this work, medium fertility sites were planted to one of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), or silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) or to the tree species that was dominant before the final clear-felling. The vulnerability to wind damage, the volume of growing stock at risk, and the amount of damage all increased, increasing the most in the south when the proportion of Norway spruce (with shallow rooting) of the growing stock increased. Under a severe climate warming, the proportion of Norway spruce decreased the most in the south, opposite to that of birch. This decreased the risk of damage in autumn (when birch is leafless), unlike in summer. The low risk of damage in the north was due to the large proportion of Scots pine.

We studied the growth responses of boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) seedlings to simulated climate warming of an average of 1.3 °C over the growing season in a controlled field experiment in central Finland. We had six replicate plots for elevated and ambient temperature for each tree species. The warming treatment lasted for the conifers for three growing seasons and for the birch two growing seasons. We measured the height and diameter growth of all the seedlings weekly during the growing season. The shoot and root biomass and their ratios were measured annually in one-third of seedlings harvested from each plot in autumn. After two growing seasons, the height, diameter and shoot biomass were 45%, 19% and 41% larger in silver birch seedlings under the warming treatment, but the root biomass was clearly less affected. After three growing seasons, the height, diameter, shoot and root biomass were under a warming treatment 39, 47, 189 and 113% greater in Scots pine, but the root:shoot ratio 29% lower, respectively. The corresponding responses of Norway spruce to warming were clearly smaller (e.g., shoot biomass 46% higher under a warming treatment). As a comparison, the relative response of height growth in silver birch was after two growing seasons equal to that measured in Scots pine after three growing seasons. Based on our findings, especially silver birch seedlings, but also Scots pine seedlings benefitted from warming, which should be taken into account in forest regeneration in the future.

We studied how the use of certain tree species in forest regeneration affected the regional wind damage risks to Finnish boreal forests under the current climate (1981–2010) and recent-generation global climate model (GCM) predictions (i.e., 10 GCMs of CMIP5, with wide variations in temperature and precipitation), using the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the period 2010–2099. The study employed forest ecosystem and mechanistic wind damage risk model simulations on upland national forest inventory plots throughout Finland. The amount of wind damage was estimated based on the predicted critical wind speeds for uprooting trees and their probabilities. In a baseline management regime, forest regeneration was performed by planting the same tree species that was dominant before the final cut. In other management regimes, either Scots pine, Norway spruce or silver birch was planted on medium-fertility sites. Other management actions were performed as for a baseline management. The calculated amount of wind damage was greatest in southern and central Finland under CNRM-CM5 RCP8.5, and the smallest under HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5. The most severe climate projections (HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5) affected the wind damage risk even more than did the tree species preferences in forest regeneration. The situation was the opposite for the less severe climate projections (e.g., MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5 and MPI-ESM-MR RCP8.5). The calculated amount of wind damage was clearly greater in the south than in the north, due to differences in forest structure. The volume of growing stock is much higher in the south for the more vulnerable Norway spruce (and birch) than in the north, which is opposite for the less vulnerable Scots pine. The increasing risk of wind damage should be taken into account in forest management because it could amplify, or even cancel out, any expected increases in forest productivity due to climate change.

Key message: The potential of airborne laser scanning (ALS) and multispectral remote sensing data to aid in generating improved wind damage risk maps over large forested areas is demonstrated. This article outlines a framework to generate such maps, primarily utilizing the horizontal structural information contained in the ALS data. Validation was done over an area in Eastern Finland that had experienced sporadic wind damage. Context: Wind is the most prominent disturbance element for Finnish forests. Hence, tools are needed to generate wind damage risk maps for large forested areas, and their possible changes under planned silvicultural operations. Aims: (1) How effective are ALS-based forest variables (e.g. distance to upwind forest stand edge, gap size) for identifying high wind damage risk areas? (2) Can robust estimates of predicted critical wind speeds for uprooting of trees be derived from these variables? (3) Can these critical wind speed estimates be improved using wind multipliers, which factor in topography and terrain roughness effects? Methods: We first outline a framework to generate several wind damage risk–related parameters from remote sensing data (ALS + multispectral). Then, we assess if such parameters have predictive power. That is, whether they help differentiate between damaged and background points. This verification exercise used 42 wind damaged points spread over a large area. Results: Parameters derived from remote sensing data are shown to have predictive power. Risk models based on critical wind speeds are not that robust, but show potential for improvement. Conclusion: Overall, this work described a framework to get several wind risk–related parameters from remote sensing data. These parameters are shown to have potential in generating wind damage risk maps over large forested areas.

Accumulation of secondary metabolites may exhibit developmentally regulated variation in different plant organs. Moreover, prevailing environmental conditions may interact with development-related variations in plant traits. In this study, we examined developmentally regulated variation in phenolic accumulation in the twigs of dioecious Populus tremula (L.) and how the effects of elevated temperature and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation on growth and phenolics accumulation varied as the plants get older. In an open-field experiment, six female and six male genotypes were exposed to single and combined elevated temperature and UVB radiation treatments for three consecutive growing seasons. The concentrations of low molecular weight phenolics and condensed tannins did not show age-dependent variation in the twigs. In temperature-treated plants, diameter growth rate decreased, and concentration of condensed tannins increased as plants aged; there were no cumulative effects of elevated UVB radiation on growth and phenolic accumulation. Females maintained a higher concentration of low molecular weight phenolics throughout the experimental period; however, growth and phenolic concentration did not vary over time in females and males. Our results suggest that phenolic accumulation in perennial plants may not necessarily always exhibit age-dependent variation and the effects of elevated temperature on growth and phenolic may diminish as plants get older.

We investigated how recent-generation (CMIP5) global climate model projections affect the volume growth, carbon stock, timber yield and its profitability in managed Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch stands on medium fertile upland sites under southern and northern boreal conditions in Finland. Forest ecosystem model simulations were conducted for the current climate and changing climate, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using 10 individual global climate model (GCM) projections. In addition to the baseline thinning, we maintained either 20% higher or lower stocking in thinning over a 90-year period. In the south, the severe climate projections, such as HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5, as opposed to MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5, considerably decreased the volume growth, carbon stock and timber yield, as well as its profitability, in Norway spruce stands, but also partially in Scots pine stands, compared to the current climate. Silver birch gained the most from the climate change in the south and Scots pine in the north. The impacts of the thinning regime varied, depending on tree species, site and climate applied. Depending on the severity of the climate change, even opposing adaptive management measures may be needed in different boreal regions.