The underlying tension between national park development and local community interests presents a significant challenge for contemporary ecological governance. Resident empowerment (RE) is increasingly recognized as a crucial pathway to mitigate this tension and achieve effective national park governance (NPG). However, the intrinsic mechanisms through which RE influences NPG have not been thoroughly explored in existing research. Drawing on the practice of government–resident interaction in China’s national parks, this paper investigates how the decentralization of power can balance the dual goals of environmental protection and social development. Using Three-River-Source National Park as a case study, we employ an ordered Logit regression model to examine the impact of RE on NPG. The study finds that RE is significantly and positively associated with NPG. Its influence is primarily mediated through three mechanisms: an identity effect (enhancing community belonging), an income effect (improving livelihood capabilities), and an environmental effect (strengthening participation in and perception of ecological conservation). Based on this empirical analysis, we recommend policies that further expand residents’ decision-making and management rights and broaden participation channels, thereby promoting the sustainable development and social equity of NPG.

National parks play a crucial role in protecting ecosystems and biodiversity while facing challenges in balancing nature conservation and economic development. However, because of the difficulty in the unified simulation of natural protection functions and regional socioeconomic development, there is a lack of integrated prediction research on the comprehensive development pathways of national parks and their surrounding areas. This study adopts the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework that links climate change research with socioeconomic development paths, taking China’s first national park—Sanjiangyuan National Park—region as an example, to conduct research on the synergistic development path of regional socioeconomic development and national parks. The model design includes five typical paths to cover a wide range of socioeconomic development possibilities. These paths are based on different assumptions, including factors such as population growth, economic development, energy use, technological progress, and policy choices. By applying scenario planning methods, optimal development pathways are identified based on environmental, economic, and social priorities. The results show that GDP growth is fastest under the sustainable development and fossil fuel development pathways. By 2050, the population difference under different pathways will approach 100,000, and the GDP gap will be close to CNY 200 billion. This study provides valuable insights for the planning, decision-making, and management of Sanjiangyuan and similar national parks and their surrounding areas, contributing to the promotion of sustainable ecological and economic development of national parks and their regions.