China’s double carbon initiative faces huge challenges, and understanding the carbon sequestration service of terrestrial ecosystems under future interannual regional land use change is important to respond to China’s carbon policy effectively. Previous studies have recognized the important impact of land use/land cover (LULC) planning on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem services (ESs). However, exploring trends in carbon sequestration under sustainable development scenarios that combine economic and ecological development, particularly the mechanisms that balance the supply and demand of carbon sequestration, still requires in-depth exploration in different geographical contexts. In this study, we present the LULC simulation framework from 2000 to 2030 for four different development scenarios in the Xinjiang region, located in an important Belt and Road region, including business as usual (BAU), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development with both economic and ecological development (SD). Our results suggest that both the supply and demand of carbon stock in Xinjiang will increase in 2025 and 2030, with the demand exceeding the supply. However, our scenario planning mitigates the supply and demand deficit situation for carbon sequestration in the context of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. In summary, our study’s findings will enrich the study of carbon sequestration under future scenarios in the Belt and Road region. Xinjiang should pay more attention to the dynamic changes in landscape type structure and its carbon storage supply and demand caused by cultivated land expansion. Among the four scenarios, the spatial difference between carbon storage supply and demand based on the SD scenario is the smallest, which is more in line with the high-quality development of regional ecological security in Xinjiang.

Accurate high-resolution soil moisture maps are crucial for a better understanding of hydrological processes and energy cycles. Mapping strategies such as downscaling and interpolation have been developed to obtain high-resolution soil moisture maps from multi-source inputs. However, research on the optimization performance of integrating downscaling and interpolation, especially through the use of mutual covariates, remains unclear. In this study, we compared four methods—two standalone methods based on downscaling and interpolation strategies and two combined methods that utilize soil moisture maps as mutual covariates within each strategy—in a case study of daily soil moisture mapping at a 1 km resolution in the Tibetan Plateau. We assessed mapping performance in terms of prediction accuracy and differences in spatial coverage. The results indicated that introducing interpolated soil moisture maps into the downscaling strategy significantly improved prediction accuracy (RMSE: −5.94%, correlation coefficient: +14.02%) but was limited to localized spatial coverage (6.9% of grid cells) near in situ sites. Conversely, integrating downscaled soil moisture maps into the interpolation strategy resulted in only modest gains in prediction accuracy (RMSE: −1.07%, correlation coefficient: +1.04%), yet facilitated broader spatial coverage (40.4% of grid cells). This study highlights the critical differences between downscaling and interpolation strategies in terms of accuracy improvement and spatial coverage, providing a reference for optimizing soil moisture mapping over large areas.