Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 10⁴ km². The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche’s geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche’s geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments.

Tapiscia sinensis Oliv. (T. sinensis), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the Staphyleaceae family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of T. sinensis in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of T. sinensis under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of T. sinensis forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of T. sinensis and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for T. sinensis are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 10⁴ km². (2) In three suitable community categories, T. sinensis is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for T. sinensis will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for T. sinensis primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of T. sinensis.