SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies provide protection against COVID-19. Evidence from early vaccine trials suggested binding antibody thresholds could serve as surrogate markers of neutralising capacity, but whether these thresholds predict sufficient neutralising capacity against variants of concern (VOCs), and whether this is impacted by vaccine or infection history remains unclear. Here we analyse individuals recovered from, vaccinated or with hybrid immunity against SARS-CoV-2. An NT50 ≥ 100 IU confers protection in vaccine trials, however, as VOC induce a reduction in NT50, we use NT50 ≥ 1000 IU as a cut off for WT NT50 that would retain neutralisation against VOC. In unvaccinated convalescent participants, a receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG of 456 BAU/mL predicts an NT50 against WT of 1000 IU with an accuracy of 80% (95%CI 73–86%). This threshold maintains accuracy in determining loss of protective immunity against VOC in two vaccinated cohorts. It predicts an NT50 < 100 IU against Beta with an accuracy of 80% (95%CI 67–89%) in 2 vaccine dose recipients. In booster vaccine recipients with a history of COVID-19 (hybrid immunity), accuracy is 87% (95%CI 77–94%) in determining an NT50 of <100 IU against BA.5. This analysis provides a discrete threshold that could be used in future clinical studies.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus can utilize host cell proteases to facilitate cell entry, whereby the Spike (S) protein is cleaved at two specific sites to enable membrane fusion. Furin, transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), and cathepsin L (CatL) are the major proteases implicated, and are thus targets for anti-viral therapy. The human serpin (serine protease inhibitor) alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) shows inhibitory activity for TMPRSS2, and has previously been found to suppress cell infection with SARS-CoV-2. Here, we have generated modified serpin inhibitors with increased specificity for these cellular proteases. Using SerpinB3 (SCCA-1), a cross-class inhibitor of CatL, as a scaffold, we have designed and produced reactive centre loop (RCL) variants to more specifically target both furin and TMPRSS2. Two further variants were generated by substituting the RCL P7–P1 with the spike protein S1/S2 cleavage site from either SARS-CoV-2 alpha or delta (P681R) sequences. Altered inhibitory specificity of purified recombinant proteins was verified in protease assays, with attenuated CatL inhibition and gain of furin or TMPRSS2 inhibition, as predicted, and modified serpins were shown to block S protein cleavage in vitro. Furthermore, the serpin variants were able to inhibit S-pseudoparticle entry into A549-ACE2-TMPRSS2 cells and suppress SARS-CoV-2 replication in Vero E6 cells expressing TMPRSS2. The construct designed to inhibit TMPRSS2 (B3-TMP) was most potent. It was more effective than A1AT for TMPRSS2 enzyme inhibition (with an eighteen-fold improvement in the second order inhibition rate constant) and for blocking SARS-CoV-2 viral replication. These findings advance the potential for serpin RCL mutagenesis to generate new inhibitors, and may lead to novel anti-viral biological molecules.

Correlates of Protection (CoP) are biomarkers above a defined threshold that can replace clinical outcomes as primary endpoints, predicting vaccine effectiveness to support the approval of new vaccines or follow up studies. In the context of COVID-19 vaccination, CoPs can help address challenges such as demonstrating vaccine effectiveness in special populations, against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants or determining the durability of vaccine-elicited immunity. While anti-spike IgG titres and viral neutralising capacity have been characterised as CoPs for COVID-19 vaccination, the contribution of other components of the humoral immune response to immediate and long-term protective immunity is less well characterised. This review examines the evidence supporting the use of CoPs in COVID-19 clinical vaccine trials, and how they can be used to define a protective threshold of immunity. It also highlights alternative humoral immune biomarkers, including Fc effector function, mucosal immunity, and the generation of long-lived plasma and memory B cells and discuss how these can be applied to clinical studies and the tools available to study them.

Quantifying neutralising capacity of circulating SARS-COV-2 antibodies is critical in evaluating protective humoral immune responses generated post-infection/post-vaccination. Here we describe a novel medium-throughput flow cytometry-based micro-neutralisation test to evaluate Neutralising Antibody (NAb) responses against live SARS-CoV-2 Wild Type and Variants of Concern (VOC) in convalescent/vaccinated populations. Flow Cytometry-Based Micro-Neutralisation Test (Micro-NT) was performed in 96-well plates using clinical isolates WT-B, WT-B.1.177.18 and/or VOCs Beta and Omicron. Plasma samples (All Ireland Infectious Diseases (AIID) Cohort) were serially diluted (8 points, half-log) from 1:20 and pre-incubated with SARS-CoV-2 (1h, 37°C). Virus-plasma mixture were added onto Vero E6 or Vero E6/TMPRSS2 cells for 18h. Percentage infected cells was analysed by automated flow cytometry following trypsinisation, fixation and SARS-CoV-2 Nucleoprotein intracellular staining. Half-maximal Neutralisation Titres (NT50) were determined using non-linear regression. Our assay was compared to Plaque Reduction Neutralisation Test (PRNT) and validated against the First WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. Both Micro-NT and PRNT achieved comparable NT50 values. Further validation showed adequate correlation with PRNT using a panel of secondary standards of clinical convalescent and vaccinated plasma samples. We found the assay to be reproducible through measuring both repeatability and intermediate precision. Screening 190 convalescent samples and 11 COVID-19 naive controls (AIID cohort) we demonstrated that Micro-NT has broad dynamic range differentiating NT50s 1/5000. We could also characterise immune-escape VOC Beta and Omicron BA.5, achieving fold-reductions in neutralising capacity similar to those published. Our flow cytometry-based Micro-NT is a robust and reliable assay to quantify NAb titres, and has been selected as an endpoint in clinical trials.