Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables in the joint model to make the model dynamic. By designing and implementing a static model, it is estimated that the indirect economic loss for the transportation sector caused by representative haze pollution of Beijing in 2013 was 23.7 million yuan. The industrial-related indirect losses due to the direct economic losses incurred by haze pollution reached 102 million yuan. With the constructed dynamic model, the cumulative economic losses for the industrial sectors have been calculated for the recovery periods of different durations. The results show that: (1) the longer the period that an industrial department returns to normal output after haze pollution has impacted, the greater the cumulative economic loss will be; (2) when the recovery period is one year, the cumulative economic loss value computed by the dynamic EC + IO model is much smaller than the loss value obtained by the static EC + IO model; (3) the recovery curves of industrial sectors show that the recovery rate at the early stage is fast, while it is slow afterwards. Therefore, the governance work after the occurrence of haze pollution should be launched as soon as possible. This study provides a theoretical basis for evaluating the indirect economic losses of haze pollution and demonstrates the value of popularization and application.
Haze has caused the deterioration of air quality and has ultimately affected the ecological environment. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is an important assessment method that is widely used in ecological economics. The public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for haze management and prevention can be analyzed using dichotomous choices. Here, the method is applied to study the valuation of haze management and prevention. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the non-market value is calculated by constructing the binary logistic model from questionnaire data, combined with a data-processing method: the sure independence screening (SIS) algorithm. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The public’s WTP for haze management and prevention is closely related to the monthly income of families and transport modality; (2) According to the CVM, the non-market value for haze management and prevention in Jiangsu is 7.645 billion yuan; (3) By the average estimate method (AEM), this value is 12.529 billion yuan, about 1.64 times the estimate from the CVM. This is because the AEM ignores the correlation among the influence factors and, therefore, overestimates the valuation of the services; (4) The CVM, combined with the SIS algorithm, does a better job in estimating the valuation of the services.
In this paper, a vector autoregression (VAR) model has been constructed in order to analyze a two-way mechanism between PM2.5 pollution and industry development in Beijing via the combination of an impulse response function and variance decomposition. According to the results, long-term equilibrium interconnection was found between PM2.5 pollution and the development of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. One-way Granger causalities were found in the three types of industries shown to contribute to PM2.5 pollution, though the three industries showed different scales of influences on the PM2.5 pollution that varied for about 1–2 years. The development of the primary and secondary industries increased the emission of PM2.5, but the tertiary industry had an inhibitory effect. In addition, PM2.5 pollution had a certain inhibitory effect on the development of the primary and secondary industries, but the inhibition of the tertiary industry was not significant. Therefore, the development of the tertiary industry can contribute the most to the reduction of PM2.5 pollution. Based on these findings, policy-making recommendations can be proposed regarding upcoming pollution prevention strategies.
At present particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution represents a serious threat to the public health and the national economic system in China. This paper optimizes the whitening coefficient in a grey Markov model by a genetic algorithm, predicts the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and then quantifies the health effects of PM2.5 pollution by utilizing the predicted concentration, computable general equilibrium (CGE), and a carefully designed exposure–response model. Further, the authors establish a social accounting matrix (SAM), calibrate the parameter values in the CGE model, and construct a recursive dynamic CGE model under closed economy conditions to assess the long-term economic losses incurred by PM2.5 pollution. Subsequently, an empirical analysis was conducted for the Beijing area: Despite the reduced concentration trend, PM2.5 pollution continued to cause serious damage to human health and the economic system from 2013 to 2020, as illustrated by various facts, including: (1) the estimated premature deaths and individuals suffering haze pollution-related diseases are 156,588 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 43,335–248,914)) and six million, respectively; and (2) the accumulated labor loss and the medical expenditure negatively impact the regional gross domestic product, with an estimated loss of 3062.63 (95% CI: 1,168.77–4671.13) million RMB. These findings can provide useful information for governmental agencies to formulate relevant environmental policies and for communities to promote prevention and rescue strategies.