Non-motor manifestations of Parkinson’s disease (PD) appear early and have a significant impact on the quality of life of patients, but few studies have evaluated their predictive potential with machine learning algorithms. We evaluated 9 algorithms for discriminating PD patients from controls using a wide collection of non-motor clinical PD features from two databases: Biocruces (96 subjects) and PPMI (687 subjects). In addition, we evaluated whether the combination of both databases could improve the individual results. For each database 2 versions with different granularity were created and a feature selection process was performed. We observed that most of the algorithms were able to detect PD patients with high accuracy (>80%). Support Vector Machine and Multi-Layer Perceptron obtained the best performance, with an accuracy of 86.3% and 84.7%, respectively. Likewise, feature selection led to a significant reduction in the number of variables and to better performance. Besides, the enrichment of Biocruces database with data from PPMI moderately benefited the performance of the classification algorithms, especially the recall and to a lesser extent the accuracy, while the precision worsened slightly. The use of interpretable rules obtained by the RIPPER algorithm showed that simply using two variables (autonomic manifestations and olfactory dysfunction), it was possible to achieve an accuracy of 84.4%. Our study demonstrates that the analysis of non-motor parameters of PD through machine learning techniques can detect PD patients with high accuracy and recall, and allows us to select the most discriminative non-motor variables to create potential tools for PD screening.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder marked by motor and cognitive impairments. The early prediction of cognitive deterioration in PD is crucial. This work aims to predict the change in the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) at years 4 and 5 from baseline in the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative database. The predictors included demographic and clinical variables: motor and non-motor symptoms from the baseline visit and change scores from baseline to the first-year follow-up. Various regression models were compared, and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values were used to assess domain importance, while model coefficients evaluated variable importance. The LASSOLARS algorithm outperforms other models, achieving lowest the MAE, $1.55\pm 0.23$ and $1.56\pm 0.19$, for the fourth- and fifth-year predictions, respectively. Moreover, when trained to predict the average MoCA score change across both time points, its performance improved, reducing its MAE by 19%. Baseline MoCA scores and MoCA deterioration over the first-year were the most influential predictors of PD (highest model coefficients). However, the cumulative effect of other cognitive variables also contributed significantly. This study demonstrates that mid-term cognitive deterioration in PD can be accurately predicted from patients’ baseline cognitive performance and short-term cognitive deterioration, along with a few easily measurable clinical measurements.

Sexuaren eragina Parkinsonen gaixotasunaren lehenengo faseetan, adierazpen ez-motorretan eta ikasketa automatikoan oinarrituta produkzioaren informazio-fitxa