The Hexi region, located in a sensitive and fragile ecological zone in northwest China, requires a scientific assessment of ecosystem services and their interactions. Identifying the main factors influencing spatial distribution is crucial for the sustainable development and effective management of the region. This study evaluates key ecosystem services, including regulating services (water conservation, soil conservation, carbon storage) and provisioning services (NPP), using Spearman’s correlation and pixel-by-pixel spatial analysis to calculate spatial trade-offs and synergies. Geographic detectors were used to uncover the underlying driving mechanisms. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, soil conservation, NPP, and carbon storage showed fluctuating growth, while water conservation declined. Spatially, high-value areas of water conservation, carbon storage, and NPP were concentrated in the central and southern areas, while high values of soil conservation services were mainly in the northwest and southeast regions. (2) The trade-offs and synergies among various ecosystem services exhibit temporal shifts, along with spatial scale effects and heterogeneity. In the study area, the proportion of pixels showing a trade-off relationship between water conservation and soil conservation, and between water conservation and NPP, accounts for 48.21% and 21.42%, respectively. These trade-offs are mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern regions, while the northwestern counties predominantly exhibit synergies. (3) Precipitation was the dominant factor for water conservation, carbon storage, and NPP, as well as for the trade-offs among these services. Among natural factors, climatic factors were significantly more influential than socio-economic factors, and the interaction between two factors had a greater explanatory power than single factors.

High-resolution and accurate precipitation data are essential for hydrological, meteorological, and ecological research at the watershed scale. However, in regions with complex terrain and significant rainfall variability, the limited number of rain gauge stations (RGS) is insufficient, and the spatial resolution of existing satellite precipitation data is too low to capture detailed precipitation patterns at the watershed scale. To address this issue, the downscaling of satellite precipitation products has become an effective method to obtain high-resolution precipitation data. This study proposes a monthly downscaling method based on a random forest model, aiming to improve the resolution of precipitation data in cloudy and rainy regions at mid-to-low latitudes. We combined the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform with a local Python environment, introducing cloud cover characteristics into traditional downscaling variables (latitude, longitude, topography, and vegetation index). The TRMM data were downscaled from 25 km to 1 km, generating high-resolution monthly precipitation data for the Dongting Lake Basin from 2001 to 2019. Furthermore, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation in the study area. The results show the following: (1) In cloudy and rainy regions, our method improves resolution and detail while maintaining the accuracy of precipitation data; (2) The response of monthly precipitation to environmental variables varies, with cloud cover characteristics contributing more to the downscaling model than vegetation characteristics, helping to overcome the lag effect of vegetation characteristics; and (3) Over the past 20 years, there have been significant seasonal trends in precipitation changes in the study area, with a decreasing trend in winter and spring (January–May) and an increasing trend in summer and autumn (June–December). These results indicate that the proposed method is suitable for downscaling monthly precipitation data in cloudy and rainy regions of the Dongting Lake Basin.