This paper presents the first methodological proposal of estimation of the . Our approach is dynamic and calibrated to market extreme scenarios, incorporating the need of regulators and financial institutions in more sensitive risk measures. We also propose a simple backtesting methodology by extending the hypothesis-testing framework. Hence, we test our proposals under extreme downward scenarios of the financial crisis and different assumptions on the profit and loss distribution. The findings show that our estimations are able to capture the tail risk and react to market fluctuations significantly faster than the and expected shortfall. The backtesting exercise displays a higher level of accuracy for our estimations.
We consider a bivariate normal distribution with linear correlation ρ whose random components are discretized according to two assigned sets of thresholds. On the resulting bivariate ordinal random variable, one can compute Goodman and Kruskal’s gamma coefficient,γ which is a common measure of ordinal association. Given the known analytical monotonic relationship between Pearson’s ρ and Kendall’s rank correlation τ for the bivariate normal distribution, and since in the continuous case, Kendall’s τ coincides with Goodman and Kruskal’s γ, the change of this association measure before and after discretization is worth studying. We consider several experimental settings obtained by varying the two sets of thresholds, or, equivalently, the marginal distributions of the final ordinal variables. This study, confirming previous findings, shows how the gamma coefficient is always larger in absolute value than Kendall’s rank correlation; this discrepancy lessens when the number of categories increases or, given the same number of categories, when using equally probable categories. Based on these results, a proposal is suggested to build a bivariate ordinal variable with assigned margins and Goodman and Kruskal’s γ by ordinalizing a bivariate normal distribution. Illustrative examples employing artificial and real data are provided.
In this article we deal with the problem of portfolio allocation by enhancing network theory tools. We propose the use of the correlation network dependence structure in constructing some well-known risk-based models in which the estimation of the correlation matrix is a building block in the portfolio optimization. We formulate and solve all these portfolio allocation problems using both the standard approach and the network-based approach. Moreover, in constructing the network-based portfolios we propose the use of three different estimators for the covariance matrix: the sample, the shrinkage toward constant correlation and the depth-based estimators . All the strategies under analysis are implemented on three high-dimensional portfolios having different characteristics. We find that the network-based portfolio consistently performs better and has lower risk compared to the corresponding standard portfolio in an out-of-sample perspective.