This paper studies the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) state space model combined with Kalman smoothing to impute missing values in a univariate time series before detecting change points. We estimate a scale-dependent time-average variance constant that depends on the length of the data section and is robust to mean shifts under serial dependence. The consistency of the proposed estimator is shown under the assumption allowing heavy tailedness. Integrating the proposed estimator with the moving sum and wild binary segmentation procedures to determine the number and locations of change points is discussed. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and applied to the Beijing multi-site air quality dataset to impute missing values and detect mean changes in the data.

In the current global context of economic integration, unexpected events have an important influence in the financial field. In 2020, the “COVID-19” outbreak triggered financial turmoil throughout the whole country and even in the global market. In the wake of this era, how to sum up past developments and predict future development through change-point detection is particularly important. In this paper, four methods for detecting change-points are presented: the likelihood ratio method, least squares method, CUSUM method, and local comparison method. Considering that Bernstein polynomials have worked well in density function approximation, the multi-dimensional Bernstein polynomials are presented. The study applies multiple change-point detection methods to determine the most suitable degree of freedom $m_j$ for multi-dimensional Bernstein models, after which various rewriting expressions can be obtained. Next, “COVID-19” data and money supply data are used for change-point detection with good results. Then, we focus on conducting change-point testing on the S&P 500 index and SSE 50 index, indicating strong symmetry when major crisis events occur. All analyses indicate that change-point detection plays an important role in identifying major crisis events and financial shocks.

In periods of dramatic stock price volatility, the identification of change points in stock price time series is important for analyzing the structural changes in financial market data, as well as for risk prevention and control in the financial market. As their residuals follow a generalized error distribution, the problem of estimating the change point parameters of the $\beta$-ARCH model is solved by combining the Kalman filtering method and the Bayes method innovatively, and we give a method for parameter estimation of the Bayes factors for the occurrences of change points, the expected values of the change point positions, and the variance of the change points. By detecting the change points of the price of eight stocks with a high number of limit up and limit down changes occurring in the observation period, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) Change point detection using the $\beta$-ARCH model based on the Bayes method is effective. (2) For different values of $\beta$, this research study finds that based on the classical ARCH model (i.e., $\beta =1$) of the change point parameter, the results are relatively optimal. (3) The accuracy of change point detection can be improved by correcting stock short-term effects by using the Kalman filtering method.