The rapid development of urbanization has led to population growth, increased resource consumption, and intensified environmental pollution. Consequently, urban ecological security has increasingly become a key factor constraining the sustainable development of socio-economic systems. This study constructed an urban ecological security evaluation system based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and used Xuzhou, a typical coal resource city, as a case study to apply and validate the model. Specifically, the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method were used to determine the index weights, and the ecological security index was used to evaluate the ecological security status of each system in Xuzhou from 2006 to 2022. Finally, the grey prediction GM (1,1) model was used to predict the ecological security status of Xuzhou in the next five years. The results show that the “disposal capacity of waste gas treatment facilities”, “per capita disposable income”, and “agricultural fertilizer application intensity” occupy a large weight in the whole evaluation system. The pressure index generally showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the state index fluctuated around 0.12. There is a simultaneous upward trend in the response index and the composite index. The ecological security level of the composite index has increased from “unsafe” in 2006 to “relatively safe” in 2022 and will continue to improve to “ideal security” in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the formulation of sustainable development policies in Xuzhou and also provides a reference for the ecological safety management and assessment of other similar cities.