Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources globally. However, the dependency of PV generation on climatological factors such as the intensity of radiation, temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, etc can impact future power generation capacity. Considering the future large-scale deployment of PV systems, accurate climate information is essential for PV site selection, stable grid regulation, planning and energy output projections. In this study, the long-term changes in the future PV potential are estimated over Australia using regional climate projections for the near-future (2020–2039) and far-future (2060–2079) periods under a high emission scenario that projects 3.4 °C warming by 2100. The effects of projected changes in shortwave downwelling radiation, temperature and wind speed on the future performance of PV systems over Australia is also examined. Results indicate decline in the future PV potential over most of the continent due to reduced insolation and increased temperature. Northern coastal Australia experiences negligible increase in PV potential during the far future period due to increase in radiation and wind speed in that region. On further investigation, we find that the cell temperatures are projected to increase in the future under a high emission scenario (2.5 °C by 2079), resulting in increased degradation and risks of failure. The elevated cell temperatures significantly contribute to cell efficiency losses, that are expected to increase in the future (6–13 d yr⁻¹ for multi-crystalline silicon cells) mostly around Western and central Australia indicating further reductions in PV power generation. Therefore, long-term PV power projections can help understand the variations in future power generation and identify regions where PV systems will be highly susceptible to losses in Australia.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) module deployment has surged globally as a part of the transition towards a decarbonized electricity sector. However, future climate change presents issues for module degradation due to prolonged exposure to outdoor conditions. Here, we identify key degradation mechanisms of monocrystalline‐silicon (mono‐Si) modules and empirically model their degradation modes under various climate scenarios. Modules tend to degrade faster due to the thermal degradation mechanism. We estimate that the weighted average degradation rate will increase up to 0.1%/year by 2059. On assessing the impacts of module degradation on future PV power generation and levelized cost of energy, we project up to 8.5% increase in power loss that leads to ~10% rise in future energy price. These results highlight the need to climate‐proof PV module design through careful material selection and improvements in the module manufacturing process. In particular, we recommend the use of heat dissipation techniques in modules to prevent degradation due to overheating.

Increasing levels of photovoltaic (PV) penetration to the electricity grid brings challenges to both design and operation of the grid due to its vulnerability to climate change. A crucial aspect of PV operation is power ramps leading to variability and instability in the grid. With notable large-scale PV deployment planned, including the world’s largest planned solar energy infrastructure in Powell Creek Australia, characterising future ramps is crucial for ensuring stable power generation to support large-scale economic development. Using CORDEX-Australasia projections under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios, future solar ramps across Australia have been characterised up to 2100. Results predict a reduction in ramp magnitude across Australia, with changes in frequency and period length varying with the location. This work highlights the importance of considering future changes in climate when designing large-scale solar farms to ensure the incorporation of frequency control devices and storage plans for a reliable power supply.