This study examines the potential of grain trade within the context of global commerce, highlighting its role as a primary component of the worldwide agricultural market and a crucial factor in ensuring global food security and price stability. To achieve the research objectives, we utilized panel data from Russia, a leading player in the grain market, and employed a gravity model along with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) to analyze the impact of demand factors and the economic openness of importing countries, as well as the effects of distance, sea access, borders, language, trade unions, and tariffs on exports. Our research challenges the notion that an increase in the wealth of countries leads to a corresponding rise in trade between them. In the case of grain, evidence indicates a negative contribution of GDP per capita in importing countries. The gravity model and PPML enabled us to assess individual country effects and quantitatively evaluate the potential for increasing Russian grain exports to Asian and African nations. We propose recommendations for enhancing domestic grain production and improving the effectiveness of marketing strategies in countries with underutilized export potential.

The evolution of international trade and trade policy has come a long way from mercantilism, A. Smith’s theory of absolute advantage, D. Ricardo’s comparative advantage. At present, there is no doubt that countries choose different models based on objective conditions of the cost of resources, the level of competitiveness achieved in goods and services and other factors. It has been proven many times that countries, following Heckscher-Ohlin’s model, export goods for which there are surplus resources and import goods with scarce resources. However, in the last 30-40 years, new theoretical concepts and views have emerged that, in our view, contribute to an understanding of the development of international trade and economic relations. The study is aimed at systematizing and supplementing the scientific base of trade and economic relations with modern views of scientists, not always directly related to international trade, but explaining its individual aspects, adequate to the current conditions of the world economy. The authors have generalized current theoretical approaches and concepts complementing classical ideas on the development of trade and economic relations. Two groups of scientific approaches have been identified: those that perform the function of forming the framework of the system of trade and economic relations and the function of «fine tuning». It is shown that at present the institutional approach occupies a special place. In particular, specialized bilateral and multilateral institutions can be a powerful tool for the development of trade and economic ties, the impact of which in modern economies cannot be underestimated. It is shown that sanctions cause serious damage to Russia by squeezing out of multilateral institutions of development of trade and economic relations. However, globalization continues to deepen its contradictions, contributing to the further fragmentation of the global world. The study contributes to the explanation of what is a sustainable system of economic relations between countries from the standpoint of modern scientific theories.

Purpose: is to reveal the potential for strengthening trade and economic cooperation between the Samara region and the Brazilian States by identifying the regional needs of the latter in non-energy goods.Methods:the article applies the statistical method of structural and dynamic analysis, calculates the index of complementarity, and adapts the Balassa index and the export potential.Results: the essence of the potential of trade and economic cooperation is revealed and the connection between the coupling of commodity flows with the non-energy potential of the region is shown. The authors identified the most active the Brazilian States and import-intensive groups of goods in trade with the Russian Federation. The Brazilian States with high potential for expanding supplies of non-energy products that can become centers of attraction in foreign trade for Russian regions were identified. Estimated values of export potential volumes, which expand the possibilities of trade and economic cooperation between the Samara region and the Brazilian States, are presented, and the conditions of export supplies are determined.Сonclusions and Relevance: the scale of coupling of commodity flows with trade partners is the basis for the formation and realization of export potential of countries and their regions. Despite the sanctions, Russian-Brazilian cooperation has reached the level of strategic partnership, almost all the Brazilian States import Russian products, many of them increase imports. It has been established that the main channels of supply of Russian products to the Brazilian market are concentrated in the port Brazil States, traditionally the most open for trade cooperation with the countries of the world. Despite the fact that the processes of product diversification in mutual trade are developing slowly, the strategic partnership allows building long-term plans for further trade cooperation by expanding trade of the Samara region with the Brazilian States with a high share of dependence on imports of non-energy goods, which the Russian region specializes in producing. The complementarity index confirmed the complementarity of commodity flows between the Samara Region and a number of the Brazilian States. In the conditions of reorientation of export flows, the opportunities of the Samara region lie in the expansion of trade in food products, chemical industry, electrical and mechanical engineering products.

Purpose: to provide a rationale for optimizing the region's export potential realization mechanism through the integration of digital technologies and the concept of smart complementarity, ensuring adaptation to the global markets fragmentation and enhancing the competitiveness of regional enterprises. Methods: general scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, abstraction, and concretization) were used. To operationalize the concept of smart complementarity, structural modeling techniques and the design of information-analytical systems were utilized. Results: a mechanism was developed that combines the conceptual framework of smart complementarity in trade flows between Russian regions and foreign countries, ecosystem interaction among foreign economic activity (FEA) participants. This mechanism incorporates an information-analytical system designed to analyze nuanced criteria, such as trade conditions, logistics, and political risks, for the formulation of regional export development strategies. The proposed mechanism was tested through the information-analytical system "Digital FEA Navigator", which provides regional enterprises and governmental authorities with tools to assess export opportunities, identify target markets, and develop strategies for entering foreign markets. Conclusions and Relevance: the development of digital technologies facilitates the emergence of new business approaches. In this regard, the article develops and substantiates a mechanism for realizing regional export potential based on the principle of smart coupling, formalized in its structure and functions that integrate modern approaches to digital transformation and ecosystem interaction among foreign economic activity participants. The practical significance of the proposed framework was demonstrated through the development and piloting of the "Digital FEA Navigator" information and analytical system, which functions as a tool for export diversification, automation of analytics, and support for decision-making by foreign economic activity entities. The results pave the way for transitioning from targeted export support to the formation of sustainable digital ecosystems that enhance global competitiveness. The implementation of the proposed mechanism for realizing regional export potential based on smart complementarity will enable regions to respond flexibly to market changes, minimize risks, and strengthen their positions in new priority areas of export activity.