China has experienced rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, and the land conversion has accelerated in central provinces since the mid-1990s. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors on the urban conversion of agricultural land in Henan Province, China. Using panel econometric models, we examine how socioeconomic and policy factors affect agricultural land conversion at the county level across three time periods, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010. The results show that both urban land rent and urban wages are essential factors that positively contribute to the conversion of agricultural land. It is also found that per capita GDP is correlated with more urban development and agricultural land loss. Consistent with expectations, agricultural financial support is negatively correlated with agricultural land conversion, suggesting a policy success. Finally, the decomposition analysis illustrates that urban wages are the most influential positive factor and agricultural financial support is the most influential negative factor affecting the urban conversion of agricultural land.

Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

China’s urbanization has resulted in significant changes in agricultural land use. However, understanding of the linkages between urbanization and fertilizer use intensity is limited. Using county-level panel data for Henan Province, 1995–2008 and panel econometric models, we investigate the impact of urbanization and other socioeconomic factors on fertilizer use intensity, with a focus on the two key processes related to urbanization—shrinking agricultural land area and increasing urban wages. Our results show that declining agricultural land per capita is associated with greater fertilizer use intensity. Urban wages is positively correlated with fertilizer use intensity. We also find that GDP per capita and per capita expenditure of government for agriculture both positively contribute to the increase of fertilizer use intensity, which is consistent with expectations. Our results imply that other than land conversion, urbanization contains some positive influences on land use sustainability. However, on the other hand, urbanization contributes to agriculture-based environmental pollution by increasing the level of fertilizer use in agricultural production.

Irrigated agriculture has the potential to alter regional to global climate significantly. We investigate how irrigation will affect regional climate in the future in an inland irrigation area of northern China, focusing on its effects on heat fluxes and near-surface temperature. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we compare simulations among three land cover scenarios: the control scenario (CON), the irrigation scenario (IRR), and the irrigated cropland expansion scenario (ICE). Our results show that the surface energy budgets and temperature are sensitive to changes in the extent and spatial pattern of irrigated land. Conversion to irrigated agriculture at the contemporary scale leads to an increase in annual mean latent heat fluxes of 12.10 W m⁻², a decrease in annual mean sensible heat fluxes of 8.85 W m⁻², and a decrease in annual mean temperature of 1.3 °C across the study region. Further expansion of irrigated land increases annual mean latent heat fluxes by 18.08 W m⁻², decreases annual mean sensible heat fluxes by 12.31 W m⁻², and decreases annual mean temperature by 1.7 °C. Our simulated effects of irrigation show that changes in land use management such as irrigation can be an important component of climate change and need to be considered together with greenhouse forcing in climate change assessments.

The Grain for Green program in China, a nationwide cropland set-aside program aimed at soil erosion prevention and poverty alleviation, was begun in 1999 and quickly expanded to 25 provinces, covering 32 million households. Its effects on participating households are well studied, but the role of ethnic characteristics is less well investigated. Given the overlap of areas covered by Grain for Green and areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, where development is a long-unresolved problem, it is important to determine how ethnic minorities react to, and benefit from, the Grain for Green program. This study investigates participation in the program by ethnic minorities and estimates its impact on their off-farm labor supply, compared with that of the ethnic majority, Han. We find that ethnic minorities were more likely to participate in the program, but enrolled similar area of land per household. However, ethnic minorities did not increase off-farm labor supply after participation in Grain for Green, while Han participants increased their off-farm labor supply significantly. These findings raise concerns that Grain for Green may have widened the income gap between Han and ethnic minorities. This study also provides important policy implications on sustainable land management for less-developed regions.