Yield gaps are pervasive in African smallholder agriculture, and are large for almost all crops in all regions. There is consensus that poor soil fertility and nutrient availability are the major biophysical limitations to agricultural production in the continent. We identify two major yield gaps: (1) the gap between actual yields (YA) and the water-limited yield potential (Yw), which is the maximum yield achievable under rainfed conditions without irrigation if soil water capture and storage is optimal and nutrient constraints are released, and (2) The gap between YA, and a locally attainable yield (YL) which corresponds to the water and nutrient-limited yields that can be measured in the most productive fields of resource endowed farmers in a community. Estimates of these two yield gaps are given for major crops, together with a framework for how yield gaps can be estimated in a pragmatic way for different farming systems. The paradigm of ecological intensification which focuses on yield potential, soil quality and precision agriculture is explored for the African context. Our analysis suggests that smallholder farmers are unable to benefit from the current yield gains offered by plant genetic improvement. In particular, continued cropping without sufficient inputs of nutrients and organic matter leads to localised but extensive soil degradation and renders many soils in a non-responsive state. The lack of immediate response to increased inputs of fertiliser and labour in such soils constitutes a chronic poverty trap for many smallholder farmers in Africa. This necessitates a rethink for development policy aimed to improve productivity and address problems of food insecurity

Understanding linkages between the diversity of organisms above ground and that of organisms below ground constitutes an important challenge for our knowledge o

Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965–2007 in Europe (1,115 kg⋅ha ⁻¹ of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg⋅ha ⁻¹ ). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700–790 kg⋅ha ⁻¹ of cropland (in total 1,070–1,200 teragrams P) is required to achieve crop production according to the various Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios [Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Cramer W (2006) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Vol 2, pp 279–354]. We estimate that average global P fertilizer use must change from the current 17.8 to 16.8–20.8 teragrams per year in 2050, which is up to 50% less than other estimates in the literature that ignore the role of residual soil P.

Achieving SDG2 (zero hunger) in a situation of rapid global population growth requires a continued focus on food production. Farming not merely needs to sustainably produce nutritious diets, but should also provide livelihoods for farmers, while retaining natural ecosystems and services. Rather than focusing on production principles, this article explores the interrelations between farms and farming systems in the global food system. Evaluating farming systems around the world, we reveal a bewildering diversity. While family farms predominate, these range in size from less than 0.1 ha to more than 10,000 ha, and from hand hoe use to machine-based cultivation, enabling one person to plant more than 500 ha in a day. Yet, farming in different parts of the world is highly interdependent, not least because prices paid for farm produce are largely determined by global markets. Furthermore, the economic viability of farming is a problem, globally. We highlight trends in major regions of the world and explore possible trajectories for the future and ask: Who are the farmers of the future? Changing patterns of land ownership, rental and exchange mean that the concept of ‘what is a farm’ becomes increasingly fluid. Next to declining employment and rural depopulation, we also foresee more environmentally-friendly, less external input dependent, regionalised production systems. This may require the reversal of a global trend towards increasing specialisation to a recoupling of arable and livestock farming, not least for the resilience it provides. It might also require a slow-down or reversal of the widespread trend of scale enlargement in agriculture. Next to this trend of scale enlargement, small farms persist in Asia: consolidation of farms proceeds at a snail’s pace in South-east Asia and 70% of farms in India are ‘ultra-small’ – less than 0.05 ha. Also in Africa, where we find smallholder farms are much smaller than often assumed (< 1 ha), farming households are often food insecure. A raft of pro-poor policies and investments are needed to stimulate small-scale agriculture as part of a broader focus on rural development to address persistent poverty and hunger. Smallholder farms will remain an important source of food and income, and a social safety net in absence of alternative livelihood security. But with limited possibilities for smallholders to ‘step-up’, the agricultural engine of growth appears to be broken. Smallholder agriculture cannot deliver the rate of economic growth currently assumed by many policy initiatives in Africa.