Systematically predicting carbon emissions in the building sector is crucial for formulating effective policies and plans. However, the timing and potential peak emissions from urban buildings remain unclear. This research integrates socio-economic, urban planning, building technology, and energy consumption factors to develop a LEAP-SD model using Shenzhen as a case study. The model considers the interrelationship between socio-economic development and energy consumption, providing more realistic scenario simulations to predict changes in carbon emissions within the urban building sector. The study investigates potential emission peaks and peak times of buildings under different population and building area development scenarios. The results indicate that achieving carbon peaking by 2030 is challenging under a business as usual (BAU) scenario. However, a 10% greater reduction in energy intensity compared to BAU could result in peaking around 2030. The simulation analysis highlights the significant impact of factors such as population growth rate, per capita residential building area, and energy consumption per unit building area and the need for a comprehensive analysis. It provides more realistic scenario simulations that not only enhance theories and models for predicting carbon emissions but also offer valuable insights for policymakers in establishing effective reduction targets and strategies.

With the increasing and intensifying effects of global climate change and the rapid development of higher education, energy and resource consumption at university campuses has been rising drastically. This shift has been worsened by campuses’ expanded role in addressing extreme weather hazards and taking on additional cultural and community functions. This article carries out a comprehensive literature review of the low-carbon measures and resilient behaviors implemented on university campuses based on publications published in two major databases, the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science (WOS). Results show that: (1) most existing studies only focus on campus carbon emission reduction from a single perspective, without considering the correlation between carbon emissions in different dimensions on campuses and without analyzing the causes of excessive campus carbon emissions from the perspective of the built environment; (2) current studies have not constructed an assessment system for campus carbon resilience and lack the tools and methods for assessment. After summarizing and analyzing, this study proposes the concept of campus “carbon resilience”, which refers to the ability of campuses to cope with the risks of disasters and uncertainties caused by excessive carbon emissions. The research framework of this study is divided into three parts: connotative characteristics, influencing factors, and optimization strategy. Following this framework, the concept and critical features of campus carbon resilience “carbon minus resilience”, “carbon saving resilience”, “carbon reduction resilience”, and “carbon sequestration resilience” are analyzed and outlined. Next, an integrated impact factor system for campus carbon resilience is proposed. This system incorporates aspects such as land utilization, building operation, landscape creation, and energy regeneration from the perspective of the built environment. Finally, with the core objective of effectively reducing the dynamic range of carbon emissions when dealing with critical disturbances and improving the adaptability and resilience of campuses to cope with excessive carbon emissions, this study proposes an optimization strategy of “setting development goals–establishing an evaluation system–proposing improvement strategies–dynamic feedback and adjustment” to provide ideas and theoretical guidance for responding to university campus carbon risk and planning carbon resilience.

The environmental crisis precipitated by climate change has accelerated the urgency of urban green and low-carbon transformation. In 2024, China’s Action Plan for the National Standardization Development Outline (2024–2025) stipulated requirements for continuously improving the standard system for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in public institutions. As key venues for knowledge innovation and energy consumption, the low-carbon transformation of higher education institutions holds significant importance for China’s achievement of its dual carbon goals. However, China lacks a systematic evaluation framework specifically designed for university campus carbon emissions. Existing green campus assessment standards often suffer from inadequate indicator adaptability, a lack of update mechanisms, and limited coverage. The STARS sustainability assessment system, widely adopted in North America, offers valuable reference points for establishing campus carbon emissions evaluation frameworks due to its features of indicator adaptability, dynamic update mechanisms, and comprehensive evaluation dimensions. This paper conducts an exploratory comparative case study of Princeton University (USA) and Tianjin University (China)—two leading research-intensive institutions—within the STARS 2.2 framework. It systematically analyses their divergent approaches to carbon management and evaluation, not as representatives of their respective continents, but as exemplars of how advanced universities operationalize low-carbon transitions. Based on this analysis and a review of domestic Chinese standards, it proposes a development pathway for China’s university campus carbon emissions evaluation system: (1) Establish a differentiated indicator system combining ‘universal fundamentals with discipline-specific types’ to enhance adaptability to campus characteristics; (2) Establish a mechanism for periodic version updates to the evaluation standard itself, ensuring alignment with evolving national carbon goals and technological advancements; (3) Develop a comprehensive and transparent carbon accounting framework that integrates direct emissions, purchased energy, and indirect sources. This research provides theoretical foundations and methodological support for institutional development and practical optimization in carbon emissions evaluation within Chinese higher education institutions.

With the wave of new campus construction gradually receding, the focus of green campus planning and design is shifting toward the low-carbon retrofitting of the existing built environment. University campuses often face challenges such as dispersed land use, inadequate spatial planning, disorganized road layouts, suboptimal landscape design, and low energy efficiency. Grounded in a review of current research on campus carbon emissions, this study integrates green technology indicators with planning and design approaches to establish a multi-scale, context-adaptive planning framework for carbon control, spanning five dimensions: intensive land use, spatial layout, transportation systems, landscape development, and facility integration. Employing a combined approach of bibliometric analysis and case studies, this research examines and compares typical university campuses both domestically and internationally to validate the effectiveness of the synergistic “technology-system-behavior” pathway in mitigating high-carbon lock-in. Through a systematic comparative analysis of representative low-carbon campuses, the synthesized results indicate that under optimal operational conditions, the clustered reorganization of functional zones demonstrates the potential to reduce transportation carbon emissions by approximately 25%; comprehensive retrofitting of building envelopes can decrease building energy consumption intensity by an estimated 30%; a multimodal coordinated transport system can increase the share of non-motorized travel to around 65%; establishing high carbon-sequestration plant communities can enhance carbon sink capacity by up to 30%; and smart facility integration can reduce overall campus carbon emissions by a projected range of 25–40%. It should be noted that these quantitative outcomes represent high-probability potential ranges, with actual performance subject to behavioral and operational fluctuations. This study provides theoretical support and practical pathways for achieving “near-zero carbon campuses” and underscores the important demonstrative role that higher education institutions can play in addressing climate change.