Precision in discerning the spatiotemporal dynamics of municipal solid waste (MSW) production and its drivers is pivotal for informing the seasonal management and recycling of urban waste streams. This investigation zeroed in on Hefei’s central urban zone, deploying a nuanced principal component analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression (PCA-GTWR) to quantify the sway of the environmental, economic, and living standard variables on the MSW generation patterns. The methodology unfolded across four main phases: (1) leveraging nocturnal light data to approximate the MSW output; (2) employing spatial autocorrelation to probe the variable trends and spatial interdependencies of the waste generation; (3) harnessing principal component analysis to pinpoint critical determinants and preprocess these as inputs for the GTWR model; (4) mapping the GTWR outcomes to elucidate the differential impacts of various factors on the waste production patterns. Key findings reveal a distinctively polycentric MSW distribution, with high-density areas anchored in the urban core and diminishing intensities beyond the secondary periphery. The trio of socioeconomic variables, residents’ living standard variables, and natural variables emerge as pivotal, with the PCA-GTWR offering a vivid spatial delineation of their effects. Notably, socioeconomic growth exerts a pronounced positive influence in more affluent quarters, residential standards bear greater relevance in burgeoning urban sections than in the established core, and environmental influences wield the least sway, ebbing and flowing with the seasons. These insights demystify the undercurrents shaping the MSW production in urban China, serving as a strategic compass for waste minimization initiatives and policy formulation.