The goal of this paper was to investigate poverty and inequities that are associated with vegetation. First, we performed a pixel-level linear regression on time-series and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 72 United States (U.S.) cities with a population ≥250,000 for 16 years (1990, 1991, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 2001 to 2010) using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer 1-kilometer (1-km). Second, from the pixel-level regression, we selected five U.S. cities (Shrinking: Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Growing: Dallas and Tucson) that were one standard deviation above the overall r-squared mean and one standard deviation below the overall r-squared mean to show cities that were different from the typical cities. Finally, we used spatial statistics to investigate the relationship between census tract level data (i.e., poverty, population, and race) and vegetation for 2010, based on the 1-km grid cells using Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Geographically Weighted Regression. Our results revealed poverty related areas were significantly correlated with positive high and/or negative high vegetation in both shrinking and growing cities. This paper makes a contribution to the academic body of knowledge on U.S. urban shrinking and growing cities by using a comparative analysis with global and local spatial statistics to understand the relationship between vegetation and socioeconomic inequality.

Mainstream machine learning approaches to predictive analytics consistently prove their ability to perform well using a variety of datasets, although the task of identifying an optimally-performing machine learning approach for any given dataset becomes much less intuitive. Methods such as ensemble and transformation modeling have been developed to improve upon individual base learners and datasets with large degrees of variance. Despite the increased generalizability and flexibility of ensemble approaches, the cost often involves sacrificing inference for predictive ability. This paper introduces an alternative approach to ensemble modeling, combining the predictive ability of an ensemble framework with localized model construction through the incorporation of cluster analysis as a pre-processing technique. The workflow not only outperforms independent base learners and comparative ensemble methods, but also preserves local inferential capability by manipulating cluster parameters and maintaining interpretable relative importance values and non-transformed coefficients for the overall consideration of variable importance. This paper demonstrates the ensemble technique on a dataset to estimate rates of health insurance coverage across the state of Missouri, where the cluster pre-processing assists in understanding both local and global variable importance and interactions when predicting high concentration areas of low health insurance coverage based on demographic, socioeconomic, and geospatial variables.

School meals provide significant access to food and nutrition for children and adolescents, particularly through universal free meal mechanisms. Alongside added nutritional meal requirements under the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act (2010), schools can utilize meal program and policy mechanisms such as the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) and Breakfast after the Bell (BATB) to increase participation. This study examines longitudinal statewide school-level CEP and BATB adoption and estimates the impact on increased free and reduced-price (FRP) breakfast participation. We find that FRP breakfast participation increased for schools that utilize both CEP and BATB (14-percentage-point increase) and that CEP-participating schools are more likely to use BATB approaches such as breakfast in the classroom, grab-and-go carts, and second-chance breakfast. Additionally, using a conditional Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach, we find that BATB adoption accounted for a 1.4-percentage-point increase in FRP school breakfasts served (p < 0.05). Study findings can inform policy and school official decision making around the policy and program mechanisms at their disposal to increase school meal participation and student nutrition.

The current study spatially examines the local variability of robbery rates in the City of Saint Louis, Missouri using both census tract and block group data disaggregated and standardized to the 250- and 500-m raster grid spatial scale. The Spatial Lag Model (SLM) indicated measures of race and stability as globally influencing robbery rates. To explore these relationships further, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to determine the local spatial variability. We found that the standardized census tract data appeared to be more powerful in the models, while standardized block group data were more precise. Similarly, the 250-m grid offered greater accuracy, while the 500-m grid was more robust. The GWR models explained the local varying spatial relationships between race and stability and robbery rates in St. Louis better than the global models. The local models indicated that social characteristics occurring at higher-order geographies may influence robbery rates in St. Louis.

There are limited efforts to incorporate different predisposing factors into prediction models that account for population racial/ethnic composition in exploring the burden of high COVID-19 Severe Health Risk Index (COVID-19 SHRI) scores. This index quantifies the risk of severe COVID-19 symptoms among a county’s population depending on the presence of some chronic conditions. These conditions, as identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), include Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity. Therefore, the objectives of this study were (1) to investigate potential population risk factors preceding the COVID-19 pandemic that are associated with the COVID-19 SHRI utilizing non-spatial regression models and (2) to evaluate the performance of spatial regression models in comparison to non-spatial regression models. The study used county-level data for 3107 United States counties, utilizing publicly available datasets. Analyses were carried out by constructing spatial and non-spatial regression models. Majority White and majority Hispanic counties showed lower COVID-19 SHRI scores when compared to majority Black counties. Counties with an older population, low income, high smoking, high reported insufficient sleep, and a high percentage of preventable hospitalizations had higher COVID-19 SHRI scores. Counties with better health access and internet coverage had lower COVID-19 SHRI scores. This study helped to identify the county-level characteristics of risk populations to help guide resource allocation efforts. Also, the study showed that the spatial regression models outperformed the non-spatial regression models. Racial/ethnic inequalities were associated with disparities in the burden of high COVID-19 SHRI scores. Therefore, addressing these factors is essential to decrease inequalities in health outcomes. This work provides the baseline typology to further explore many social, health, economic, and political factors that contribute to different health outcomes.