Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity. For five broad and interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), current change and future scenarios consistently point to significant and increasing risks during the coming decades. Policies for the sustainable development of Mediterranean countries need to mitigate these risks and consider adaptation options, but currently lack adequate information — particularly for the most vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies, where fewer systematic observations schemes and impact models are based. A dedicated effort to synthesize existing scientific knowledge across disciplines is underway and aims to provide a better understanding of the combined risks posed.

Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5‐year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy‐based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018‐like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high‐end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro‐economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.

This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro‐climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro‐climatic zones driven by two agro‐meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro‐climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature‐related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high‐resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro‐climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975–2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator‐based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated.

Extreme-temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. The heat waves in western Europe in 2003 and in Russia in 2010, or the cold wave in southeastern Europe in 2012, generated a considerable amount of economic loss and resulted in the death of several thousands of people. Providing an operational system to monitor extreme-temperature anomalies in Europe is thus of prime importance to help decision makers and emergency services to be responsive to an unfolding extreme event. In this study, the development and the validation of a monitoring system of extreme-temperature anomalies are presented. The first part of the study describes the methodology based on the persistence of events exceeding a percentile threshold. The method is applied to three different observational datasets, in order to assess the robustness and highlight uncertainties in the observations. The climatology of extreme events from the last 21 years is then analysed to highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the hazard, and discrepancies amongst the observational datasets are discussed. In the last part of the study, the products derived from this study are presented and discussed with respect to previous studies. The results highlight the accuracy of the developed index and the statistical robustness of the distribution used to calculate the return periods.