In the context of the large-scale management of the Loess Plateau and efforts to reduce water and sediment in the Yellow River, this study focuses on a typical watershed within the Loess Plateau. The potential for vegetation restoration in the Kuye River Basin is estimated based on the assumption that vegetation cover should be relatively uniform under similar habitat conditions. The potential for terrace restoration is assessed through an analysis of topographic features and soil layer thickness, while the potential for silt dam construction is evaluated by considering various hydrological and geomorphological factors. Based on these assessments, the overall potential for soil erosion control in the watershed is synthesized, providing a comprehensive understanding of target areas for ecological restoration within the Kuye River Basin. The study demonstrates that the areas with the greatest potential for vegetation restoration in the Kuye River Basin are concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the basin, which are in closer proximity to the river. The total potential for terracing is 1013.85 km², which is primarily distributed across the river terraces, farmlands, and gentle slopes on both sides of the riverbanks. Additionally, the potential for the construction of check dams is 14,390 units. The target areas for terracing measures in the Kuye River Basin are primarily situated in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, which are in closer proximity to the river. Conversely, the target areas for forest, grass, and check dams, as well as other small watershed integrated management measures, are predominantly located in the hill and gully areas on the eastern and southern sides of the basin. The implementation of the gradual ecological construction of the watershed, based on the aforementioned objectives, will facilitate the protection, improvement, and rational utilization of soil, water, and other natural resources within the watershed.

This study analyzes precipitation patterns and future trends in the Kuye River Basin in the context of climate change, providing a scientific foundation for water resource management and ecological protection. Using methods such as the Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt test, and complex Morlet wavelet analysis, this study examines both interannual and intra-annual variability in historical precipitation data, identifying abrupt changes and periodic patterns. Future projections are based on CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, forecasting changes over the next 30 years (2023–2052). The results reveal significant spatiotemporal variability in precipitation, with 88.16% concentrated in the summer and flood seasons, while only 1.07% falls in winter. The basin’s multi-year average precipitation is 445 mm, exhibiting stable interannual variability, but with a significant increase starting in 2006. Projections indicate that the average annual precipitation will rise to 524.69 mm from 2023 to 2052, with a notable change point in 2043. Precipitation is expected to increase spatially from northwest to southeast. This research underscores the importance of understanding precipitation dynamics in managing drought and flood risks. It highlights the role of soil and water conservation and vegetation restoration in improving water resource efficiency, supporting sustainable development, and guiding climate adaptation strategies.

This study systematically evaluated the response mechanisms of water and sediment processes in the Kuye River Basin to climate change and human activities from 2023 to 2053 by integrating multi-source climate scenarios (CMIP5 models), land-use change projections (based on the Markov chain model), and a distributed hydrological model (SWAT model). The results indicate that under the RCP8.5 high-emission scenario, annual precipitation in the basin shows a non-significant increasing trend but with intensified interannual variability. Spatially, precipitation exhibits a pattern of increasing from northwest to southeast, with a marked decadal transition occurring around 2043. Land-use structure undergoes significant transformation, with construction land projected to account for 30.54% of the total basin area by 2050, while grassland and cropland continue to decline. Water and sediment processes display distinct phased characteristics: a fluctuating adjustment phase (2023–2033), a relatively stable phase (2034–2043), and a sharp growth phase (2044–2053). Parameter sensitivity analysis identifies the curve number (CN2) and soil bulk density (SOL_BD) as key regulatory parameters, revealing the synergistic mechanism by which land-use changes amplify climatic effects through alterations in surface properties. Based on the findings, an adaptive watershed management framework is proposed, encompassing dynamic water resource regulation, spatial zoning, targeted erosion control, and iterative scientific management. Particular emphasis is placed on addressing hydrological transition risks around 2043 and promoting low-impact development practices in high-erosion areas. This study provides a scientific basis for the integrated management of water and soil resources in the context of ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The methodology developed herein offers a valuable reference for predicting water and sediment processes and implementing adaptive management in similar semi-arid basins.

Check dam is a line of defense in the comprehensive watershed management system, but with the extended operation time, the operational risk of check dam increases, coupled with the frequent occurrence of sudden heavy rainfall under the influence of climate change in recent years, further increasing the risk of dam break.In this study, to address the current problem of untimely detection of potential dam break risk of check dam in China, we use the common variable screening based on WoE (Weight of Evidence) and IV (Information Value), establish a score card model based on logistic regression method, use KS curves and statistics, and AUC values for model evaluation, and analyze the 2016 From 22:00 on August 16 to 12:00 noon on August 17, 2016, a dam break was formed by a large rainstorm in Dalat Banner.The following conclusions were obtained: The IV values of each variable, such as control area, total storage capacity, siltation area, storage volume, and maximum rainfall, were all greater than 0.1, and each variable had more than moderate predictive power as a function of the breaking of check dam, that is, each factor had an effect on the breaking of check dam.The IV values of precipitation factors are higher than those of check dam factors. The influence probability of precipitation factors on the breaking of check dam is about 67%, and the influence probability of check dam factors on the breaking of check dam is about 33%.Precipitation is a direct factor affecting the breaking of check dam, and the maximum 6-hour precipitation has the most significant effect; among the check dam factors, the control area, storage volume, and flood storage capacity have a greater effect on the breaking of check dam, accounting for more than 10%, while the siltation volume and depth have a smaller effect on the breaking of check dam, accounting for 2.85% and 2.89% respectively.Very low risk which check dam with a score of 95 or higher account for about 43%, low risk for 28%, average risk for 15%, and higher risk for 7%. Very high risk accounted for 5% and there was only one dam with danger which is rated below 10.This study aims to monitor and warn the operation of check dam to ensure the safe operation of the check dam system and maintain the ecological security of the Loess Plateau.

Information on the effects of differences in root and soil properties on Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) is crucial for estimating rainfall infiltration and evaluating sustainable ecological development. This study selected typical grass shrub composite plots widely distributed in hilly and gully areas of the Loess Plateau: Caragana korshinskii, Caragana korshinskii and Agropyron cristatum (fibrous root), and Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia gmelinii (taproot). Samples were collected at different distances from the base of the shrub (0 cm, 50 cm), with a sampling depth of 0–30 cm. The constant head method is used to measure the K_s. The K_s decreased with increasing soil depth. Due to the influence of shrub growth, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of K_s at different positions from the base of the shrub. Compared to the sample location situated 50 cm from the base of the shrub, it was observed that in a single shrub plot, the K_s at the base were higher, while in a grass shrub composite plot, the K_s at the base were lower. Root length density, >0.25 mm aggregates, and organic matter were the main driving factors affecting K_s. The empirical equation established by using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensions of these three factors and calculate the comprehensive score was more accurate than the empirical equation established by previous researchers, who considered only root or soil properties. Root length density and organic matter had significant indirect effects on K_s, reaching 52.87% and 78.19% of the direct effects, respectively. Overall, the composite plot of taproot herbaceous and shrub (Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia gmelinii) had the highest K_s, which was 82.98 cm·d⁻¹. The ability of taproot herbaceous plants to improve K_s was higher than that of fibrous root herbaceous plants. The research results have certain significance in revealing the influence mechanism of the grass shrub composite on K_s.