Over the past 40 years, roads have been the main driver behind the State of Acre’s occupation and development. However, the expansion of roads, has often been associated with the advance of deforestation, habitat fragmentation, and social conflicts. There are no up-to-date data available on the current extent of Acre’s road network nor its environmental and socioenvironmental impacts. In this study, we updated the State of Acre’s road network map for the period 2007 to 2019 through the visual interpretation of 153 Landsat images (5, 7, and 8) at a scale of 1:50,000. To estimate the impact of roads, we measured the distribution of roads in municipalities and in different land tenure categories and calculated the correlation between roads and annual deforestation. Up to 2019, we estimated 19,620 km of roads, of which 92% were unofficial roads, 6% federal roads, and 2% state roads. The roads increased at an average annual rate of 590 km year⁻¹. The most significant advance in road length between 2007 and 2019 was in protected areas (240%), followed by public lands (68%) and settlement projects (66%). We recommend monitoring of the road network to understand the landscape’s evolution and support actions against illicit environmental and socioenvironmental impacts.

Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO₂e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO₂e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks.

Brazil ranks fifth in greenhouse gas emissions globally due to land use change. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Brazil must periodically report its GHG emissions as well as present mitigation targets set in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The SEEG Brazil Initiative (Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimating System) generates independent estimates of GHG emissions and removals since 2013, and in 2020, the estimation method for the land use change sector has been improved. This study aimed to (1) present these methodological advancements, including the spatial allocation of annual emissions and removals due to land use change (LUC) in Brazil at a 30 m spatial scale, and (2) explore the emission and removal patterns observed in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. The method presented here is built upon—but improves—the approach used by Brazil’s official National Inventories to estimate GHG emissions and removals. The improvements presented here include exploring emissions to the municipality level and using an annual updated time series of land use and land cover maps. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions from the LUC sector ranged from 687 Mt of CO₂e in 2011 to a peak of 2150 Mt of CO₂e in 2003. In 2010, removals nearly offset gross emissions in the sector, with a net emission of 116 Mt of CO₂e. The trend observed in recent years was an increase in emissions, decreasing Brazil’s likelihood of meeting its NDC targets. Emission profiles vary across the country, but in every biome, the conversion of primary native vegetation is the predominant transition type. If Brazil managed to curb deforestation, the total GHG emissions from the land use change sector would decrease by 96%, mitigating around 44% of total emissions.

Protected areas (PAs) in the Brazilian Amazon have proven to be critical in preserving the rainforest but face increasing threats. Since 2019, illegal activities and land conflicts involving PAs have escalated due to the weakening of environmental institutions. Therefore, up-to-date research is needed to evaluate agricultural pressures on PAs—including Sustainable Use Areas, Indigenous Territories, and Strictly Protected Areas—given its importance in driving deforestation in the Amazon, and to identify hotspots of concern. We analyzed property registration, deforestation, pasture expansion, and cattle transaction records within 158 PAs in the Brazilian state of Pará, which holds most of the remaining forest and the highest rates of deforestation. Our findings show that nearly a quarter of Pará’s 2019–2022 deforestation occurred within PAs, undermining their effectiveness as conservation tools. Despite prohibitions, we found illegally registered private properties in most PA categories including indigenous territories and over a 100% increase in deforestation within PAs from 2015–2018. Over 90% of PAs contained pasturelands in 2022, but only half of them had registered cattle transactions within their borders, which suggests the presence of clandestine cattle activities in these areas as well. Indirect sales to slaughterhouses coming from PAs increased during the study period, potentially due to efforts by ranchers to obscure such cattle origins from companies that are increasingly monitoring their direct suppliers. Finally, we identified 17 high-risk PAs concentrating most threats. Focusing monitoring efforts on property registries and cattle transactions in these areas could significantly reduce illegal deforestation and illegal cattle ranching. While PAs are considered to be cornerstones of forest conservation efforts, our findings show that current policies fail to prevent cycles of land grabbing, illegal ranching, and deforestation that can eventually lead to the downgrading, downsizing, and degazetting of PAs. Given this context, validating property claims, tracing cattle sales, and penalizing deforestation are urgently needed to halt these cycles that threaten PAs.

Mapping slaughterhouse supply zones is crucial for assessing cattle concentration, environmental impact, and promoting sustainable practices. This study combines cattle transit records (GTA in Portuguese) with rural property boundaries (CAR in Portuguese) to map these zones in the Brazilian Amazon. It evaluates the influence of Zero-Deforestation Cattle Agreements (CA) and explores the overlap between CA and non−CA slaughterhouse supply zones. Results reveal that CA slaughterhouse supply zones significantly impact forest preservation and cover a large area equivalent to entire municipalities. Over two-thirds of the study region, including most non-protected areas, falls within these zones. There is a high degree of overlap (95%) with non−CA supply zones, indicating competition for suppliers and limited expansion potential for CA. Direct and indirect suppliers are located nearby, with approximately 80% of indirect suppliers within 100 km of direct suppliers. Consequently, supply zones for both types of suppliers largely overlap. These findings demonstrate that assessing slaughterhouse deforestation risk for the entire supply chain in our study region can be achieved by mapping only the direct suppliers. This research provides valuable insights into cattle concentration, the effectiveness of zero-deforestation commitments, and the need for sustainable practices in the slaughterhouse industry.