The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana’s distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.

The Grapholita dimorpha is one of the significant borer pests that primarily damage plum, pear, and apple trees, often resulting in substantial economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest remains poorly understood. In this study, we simulated an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. dimorpha and identified its underlying driving factors. The results indicate that suitable habitats, under current bioclimatic conditions, are mainly distributed in eastern China, northeastern China, Korea, and Japan, covering a total of 273.5 × 10⁴ km². The highly suitable habitats are primarily located in Korea and parts of central Japan, with a total area of 19.8 × 10⁴ km². In future projections, the suitable area is expected to increase by 17.74% to 62.10%, and the suitable habitats are predicted to shift northward overall. In particular, there are more highly suitable habitats for G. dimorpha in China and Japan compared to their predominance in Korea under current climatic conditions. The bio9 and bio18 contribute 51.9% and 20.7% to the modeling, respectively, indicating that the distribution of G. dimorpha may be shaped mainly by the mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter. In summary, the distribution range predicted, particularly for regions with highly suitable habitats, poses a high risk of G. dimorpha outbreaks, emphasizing the priority of pest monitoring and management. Furthermore, the key bioclimatic variables identified could also provide crucial reference for pest monitoring.